TwoCircles.net forecasts seven seats returning Muslim candidates, they have decent chance on eight more seats. BSP can spoil it for the Congress and risk a historical low for Muslim representations in Karanataka Assembly. Read the analysis by Kashif-ul-Huda of TwoCircles.net
On May 25th, Karnataka will count the votes to reveal names of winners and losers of 224 assembly constituencies. This is an important election that will set the stage for the next Lok Sabha elections in Southern India. BJP will want to win this election without the support of any other party so that it can govern Karnataka without feeling pressure from its coalition partners. Congress, on the other hand, will try to improve its performance in 2004 of 65 seats to show that it is still a viable party in Karnataka politics.
Since winning 2 seats in 1985 assembly elections, BJP is the only party that has improved their performance every election, winning 79 seats in 2004. In the last Assembly, BJP was the single largest party, followed by Congress with 65 seats and JD(S) with 58 seats.
Muslim representations
Muslims have been able to win 5 to 7 seats in state elections since 1985, except in 1999 when 13 Muslims made it to the Assembly. The 1999 win was due to exceptional showing by the Congress which won 132 seats that year. Out of 13 Muslim legislators that year, 12 were Congress candidates and one a JD(S) candidate.
In 1985, out of 5 winning Muslim candidates, 3 were from Congress and 2 from Janata Party. In 1989, 6 of the 7 winning Muslim candidate were on Congress ticket and one on Muslim League. In 1994, congress fared badly but Muslims were still able to win 6 seats. Three were on Janata Dal tickets, one each on BSP, Congress, and Indian National League. 1999 saw Congress improve its performance and as mentioned above 13 Muslims also were able to win in a Congress wave.
Last assembly elections in 2004 saw 6 Muslim candidates winning the seats- 4 were Congress nominee and 2 on JD(S) tickets. Muslims form 12% of Karnataka’s population which means that to be properly represented Muslims candidates should win about 26 seats. Even if we take out 36 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes and 15 for Scheduled Tribes, Muslims should still win 20 seats to be represented based on their population in the state.
Muslims are pretty much evenly spread across Karnataka and this is reflected in the seats that have returned Muslim candidates. There do not seem to be any safe seat for Muslims, which means that they have won by winning votes from all communities. So less representation of Muslims in Karnataka assembly is more a reflection of the fact that less seats are assigned to Muslim candidates by the political parties.
2008 Elections
In 2008 assembly election, there are a total of 28 Muslim candidates fielded from 18 constituencies by major political parties. The Congress have given tickets to 14 Muslims, JD(S) to 12 and JD(U) to 2. BJP was unable to find any Muslim to field from any seat in Karnataka but has promised to make a Muslim minister, if voted to power.
So the best that Muslims can hope for in Karnataka elections is that they win all these 18 seats from where they are contesting. This will still be less than their proper representation of 20 but better the high of 1999.
TwoCircles.net (TCN) analysed the results of the previous elections to make forecast about the chances of winning for these 28 Muslim candidates. Our analysis shows that Muslims may win from seven to fifteen seats this year.
Iqbal Ansari of JD(S) from Ganawati is defending his seat, Congress was close third and if Congress is to increase their vote share that can spoil it for Ansari. TCN forecasts a win for Ansari.
Tanveer Sait is a Congress candidate from Narasimharaja. He won in 2004 from here by a huge margin over JD(S) candidate. This time there are more parties in the fray including Akram Pasha of JD(U), who polled 6% of votes in the last election. Still Sait should win this seat comfortably.
Congress has fielded Sayeed Ahmed from Chamrajpet which was won by a different Congress candidate by winning 58% of the votes. JD(S) has fielded Zameer Ahmed Khan from the same constituency. In the last election JD(S) polled 10% of the votes. TCN forecasts Sayeed Ahmedd to win this seat.
Roshan Baig is a Karanataka heavy weight among Muslim politicians. He is contesting from Shivajinagar, a constituency he was elected from in 1985 and 1994 but came second in 1989 elections. Shivajinagar was won by BJP in the last two elections when Baig shifted to Jaymahal winning there in 1999 and 2004. Shivajinagar also has JD(S) Muslim candidate Ashfaq Ahmed, he polled 6% in 2004 elections. Roshan Baig should win this seat.
Qamarul Islam of Gulbarga Uttar has won this seat in 1978, 1989, 1994, and 1999. He lost to BJP by a narrow margin the last election but strong possibility that he may win this year. Congress lost Shiggaon by a very slim margin in the last election, this year Khadri Sayed Azeem Peer is the Congress nominee and a strong possibility to win this seat.
U. T. Khadar is the Congress nominee for Mangalore seat which was won by the BJP for the last three elections, but a new candidate is fielded by the BJP in this election and Mr. Khadar has a good chance.
In addition to these seven seats that should return Muslim legislators in the next state assembly, there are 5 more seats which can be won by Muslim candidates. Ismail Khan of Congress is in direct fight with BJP in Shimoga. BJP has won Tumkur City for the last three elections but this time Congress has changed its candidate and fielded Rafiq Ahmed. Shanti Nagar used be SC reserved constituencyN. A. Haris of the Congress and Mohammed Nazeer Ahmed of JD(U) are contesting this year from here. This was won by the Congress in 1999 but lost in 2004.
Mangalore City North before the delimitation was constituency Suranthkal which was won by BJP with a 3% margin of votes. Mohinddin Bava of the Congress is trying his luck from Mangalore City North and has a fair chance of winning it. Syed Yasin of the Congress won Raichur in 1999 but lost to BJP in 2004 by a margin of 9%, in the same election JD(S) candidate polled 9%. These five seats have some chance of returning Muslim candidates for the next Assembly.
Other Muslim candidates of major parties that probably have no chance of winning are Nisar Ahmed from Kolar, Muzammil Ahmed Khan from Chickpet, Nazeer Ullal from Mangalore, Nasir Bagwan from Khanapur, and K. M. Ibrahim from Bantval, all these candidates are from JD(S). Rafique Khanapuri of Khanapur contesting on the Congress ticket has no chance either.
We do not have enough data to say anything about Merajuddin Patel from Homnabad and Abdul Khadar Pathan from Hangal, both on JD(S) tickets.
BSP and SP do not have much of a presence in Karnataka but they are contesting 207 and 117 seats respectively. They will help in division of non-BJP votes and this will help BJP. This also means that that this year may see a historical low in terms of Muslim representation in the state legislators since all Muslim candidates analysed here can lose with slight swing of votes.
Winning Muslim candidates in Karanataka Assembly elections:
1985:
Constituency Candidate Party
116. NARASIMHARAJA MUKTHAR UNNISA F INC
21. RAICHUR MOHAMED ONER ABDUL RAHMAN M INC
4. BIDAR MOHD. LAIQUDDIN BURANUDDIN M INC
81. CHAMARAJAPET MOHAMMAD MOIEUDDIN M JNP
85. SHIVAJINAGAR R. ROSHAN BEIG M JNP
1989:
10. GULBARGA QAMURUL ISLAM M MUL
116. NARASIMHARAJA AZEEZ SAIT M INC
154. CHIKMAGALUR C. R. SAGEER AHAMED M INC
57. TUMKUR S. SHAFI AHMED M INC
73. KOLAR K. A. NISAR AHMED M INC
80. BINNYPET NASEER AHMED M INC
93. CHANNAPATNA SADAT ALI KHAN M INC
1994:
10. GULBARGA QAMARUL ISLAM M INL
154. CHIKMAGALUR C.R. SAGEER AHMAD M INC
36. KUDLIGI N.M. NABI M JD
4. BIDAR SYED ZULFEKAR HASHMI (BABA PATEL) M BSP
5. HUMNABAD M. MERAJUDDIN NIZAMUDDIN PATEL M JD
85. SHIVAJINAGAR R. ROSHAN BAIG M JD
1999:
10. GULBARGA QAMARUL ISLAM M INC
116. NARASIMHARAJA AZEEZ SAIT M INC
139. VITTAL KM IBRAHIM M INC
143. ULLAL UT FAREED M INC
154. CHIKMAGALUR CR SAGEER AHMED M INC
176. HUBLI HONNALLI JABARKHAN HAIYAT KHAN M INC
180. SHIGGAON KHADRI SYED AZEMPEER SYED KADAR BASHA JD(S)
209. ATHANI DONGARAGAON SHAHAJAN ISMAIL M INC
21. RAICHUR SYED YASIN M INC
221. BIJAPUR USTAD MAHABUBPATEL LADLE PATEL M INC
26. KUSHTAGI HASANASAB NABEESAB DOTIHAL M INC
36. KUDLIGI SIRAJ SHAIK M INC
87. JAYAMAHAL R ROSHAN BAIG M INC
2004:
116. NARASIMHARAJA TANVEER SAIT M INC
143. ULLAL FAREED UT M INC
176. HUBLI HONNALLI JABBARKHAN HAYATKHAN M INC
29. GANGAVATHI IKBAL ANSARI M JD(S)
5. HUMNABAD MIRAJODDIN PATEL M JD(S)
87. JAYAMAHAL ROSHAN BAIG M INC