By M.R. Narayan Swamy,IANS,
New Delhi : With more than half of India having voted, political players have begun to hunt seriously for new allies as they anticipate one of the most splintered parliaments ever.
Almost everyone admits that no single political party is in a position to win even 170 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha. This is far less than the 272 needed to form a government.
Even the coalitions led by the ruling Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – the two main parties – may not be able to get the magic number.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has cracked, with several smaller parties deserting it for greener pastures.
The BJP suffered a major blow when Orissa’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) divorced it without warning. There are rumblings that the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), which rules Bihar, is uncomfortable vis-�-vis the BJP.
Naturally, both Congress and BJP strategists are worried though their leaders claim publicly that no government can be formed minus one of them.
Undermining their efforts is the Third Front, a combination of regional and Communist parties. Left veterans claim their alliance can outrace both the Congress and the BJP.
There are not many takers for this. But political pundits concede that the Third Front will be a key player once the staggered elections conclude May 13, with vote count set for May 16.
The Congress and BJP have another headache in the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is expected to win a large number of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state that it rules.
BSP leader and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati is unlikely to extend her support to anyone – without extracting a heavy price.
There is speculation that any coalition that seeks her support will have to grant her the country’s top post or at least make her a deputy prime minister.
Government formation is certain to get delayed if neither of the two main coalitions gets a majority.
In such an event, the Congress and the BJP – whichever is the single largest party in parliament – will be forced to shake hands with some of the parties they are now pitted against.
Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi gave some indication of this Tuesday when he tried to woo not just the estranged Left but also two anti-Congress parties – the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the JD-U.
The Communists, who withdrew support to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July last year over the India-US nuclear deal, are refusing to make up.
But in a largely ideology-sans election, where personalities appear to have overshadowed issues, it may not be too difficult for some parties to jump into any bed – for power.
A splintered verdict is bound to give enormous clout to parties with even single-digit number of MPs, even as low as one or two.
The 2004 elections too produced a badly hung Lok Sabha, but the circumstances were not the same.
The Congress, which finished on top of the house with 145 seats, formed the government with help from several smaller parties. The Left then provided the glue.
Knowing the compromises that may follow if the Congress forms a government now, Rahul Gandhi has ruled out any negotiations over Manmohan Singh as the prime minister.
As if to take a swipe at the Congress, some of its own allies are suggesting that Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar could make a better prime minister in a coalition government.
Manmohan Singh or Pawar, one thing is clear: no one knows who will get to rule India.