By Kashif-ul-Huda, TwoCircles.net
There are names of organizations being floated around as those who can be behind this latest terror attack on Mumbai. But most of these statements are either contributed to anonymous sources or to terror experts who are well known for pushing their bias, lacking any evidence or analysis. Therefore to really begin to understand who could be behind the recent Mumbai blasts we have to see what kind of terror attacks India has seen in recent years and which organizations are said to behind those attacks.
First, the facts of July 13, 2011 bomb blasts in Mumbai:
Bombs: three bombs, two of low-intensity and one of high-intensity.
Target: public places
Type: serial blasts
What does this tell us?
Low quality of bombs means that these bombs were prepared by a terrorist group not affiliated to a military; otherwise these bombs would have been more sophisticated and have killed more people. The fact that all these three bombs exploded in different parts of Mumbai at around the same time means that there were at least three groups of people placing each of the bombs. Absence of any unexploded bomb suggests that none of the bomb-placement groups got cold feet and abandoned the idea and dumped the bomb. Failure to find unexploded bomb could also mean that bomb-maker was proficient and all the devices that he made worked. This means that this terror strike is carried out by a dedicated group of people, who may not have lot of resources but proficient in their trade and able to construct three bombs and then place them in public places without getting discovered.
After the fact: tight security at Opera House after Mumbai blasts.
Indian Mujahideen
This was the first name that everyone expected to be mentioned in relation to Mumbai blasts and TV channels did oblige. Quoting anonymous sources, TV channels and news websites credited “Indian Mujahideen” as the group behind the latest bomb blasts. Indian Mujahideen is a shadowy organization that first came on the scene on November 23, 2007 by sending an email to media houses claiming responsibility for six blasts that occurred in UP courts of Lucknow, Varanasi, and Faizabad.
Since then they have also claimed responsibility for Jaipur (May 13, 2008), Ahmedabad (July 26, 2008), and Delhi blasts (September 13, 2008). They have also claimed an attack on Jama Masjid that occurred on September 19, 2010, just a few days before the Commonwealth Games.
So except for one, all the attacks that this group has claimed have been serial blasts, though all of them have been at a bigger scale than the latest Mumbai attack. It is also to be noted that Indian Mujahideen has always sent an email just before or right after an attack to claim responsibility. There has not been any email before or after the attack putting a big doubt on whether it was indeed this group behind the latest terror strike on Indian soil.
Foreign factors
Pakistani terror groups have mostly operated in Kashmir. Even with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) or Harkatul Jehad-e-Islami (HuJI) name thrown around a lot in India media there are very few incidents outside Kashmir that can be conclusively traced back to these organization or their host countries. One such example is obviously the Mumbai attacks of 2008 also known as 26/11 for the November 26th date when the attack began.
If 26/11 is any guide it shows that terrorists in our neighboring countries are highly trained, and most significantly they arrived in India on the day of their attack. It is impossible for a group of foreigners to remain in India undetected for so long without coming into the eyes of law enforcement or intelligence agencies, especially given the close scrutiny that Indian Muslims have been going through for some years now.
So if we consider number of people who have to be involved in this operation and the low quality of bombs, it seems less probable that a foreign element carried out the Mumbai blasts.
Relatives of the injured at Opera House.
Hindutva groups
Among the Indian-based terror groups, we have to consider Hindutva groups as well. Thanks to Swami Aseemananda’s confessions now we know for sure that Hindutva elements were involved in Mecca Masjid bombing (May 18, 2007), twice in Malegaon(September 8, 2006 and September 29, 2008), Ajmer (October 11, 2007) and also Samjhauta train bombing (February 18, 2007).
We do see a pattern that all confirmed Hindutva attacks have so far been on mosques or a train that is mostly used by Muslims. Mumbai blasts were civilian targets and at least this doesn’t seem to have been the strategy of the Hindutva groups in the past.
Conclusion
If we take the motive of some groups adversely affecting the Indian financial system through terror attacks then this hasn’t really happened since the first major attacks of 1993, so why would terror groups keep coming back to hitting Mumbai when the financial sector comes back to life the very next day itself. If the motive of the blasts is to create communal disharmony in the country then that has also not worked well even after so many blasts and deaths of both Hindus and Muslims that have included attacks on mosques and temples.
This leaves us with only one motive and which is to create diplomatic rifts between Indian and Pakistan. There are only two types of groups that want to see this happen- Pakistani terrorists or Hindutva groups. As mentioned before, it is difficult for Pakistanis to operate in India without being detected so that leaves us with just Hindutva terror group that has the motive to do this. They also have a strong cadre based in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, and the bombing methodology and technology also comes close to the level that they must have reached by now had they been actively practicing their trade.
Regardless of who is really behind this latest violence, India as a nation need to recognize that there will always be internal and external forces who will be in the lookout for an opportunity to destabilize India or cause some damage that they think will push India towards their agenda. It is the job of the intelligence agencies to track, infiltrate, and bust these organizations. Unfortunately, this has not happened so far and in most cases due to the pressure of media and public law enforcement agencies arrest and charge many for crimes they have not committed wasting time and money on court cases, not to mention destroying innocent lives. This has not worked in the past and it is high time we get a new approach in tackling terrorism that follows the physical clues and leads that will take us to the source of terror but this must happen away from the glares of the cameras.