By TCN staff reporter,
Guwahati: Assam may get a hung assembly and there is a possibility of a non-congress alliance forming the new government, says the exit poll conducted by Centre for Minorities study Research and Development (CMRD), a Guwahati based organization that works for social development. The exit poll results were announced here today.
The CMRD survey is believed to be the most extensive exit poll that is based on a sample of 25,200 voters covering the whole of 126 constituencies that went on poll on April 3 and 11 last month.
Maulana Badruddin Ajmal at Fakirpara on 8 Oct. 2008, this is his third visit to area after the riot on 4 Oct.
According to the survey, the ruling Congress may get just 43 seats in the 126-seat Assam assembly, leading to a hung assembly where either AGP or AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal can play the role of kingmaker. AGP is expected to win 37 seats and AIUDF 15 seats. However, other post-poll surveys including one by the IBN7-CSDS telecast last night predicted easy win for Congress.
According to the IBN7-CSDS survey, the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress may get 64-72 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly, while the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led AGP may win 16-22 seats. Assam United Democratic Front of Badruddin Ajmal may get 11-17 seats. In the current assembly, AUDF has only 7 MLAs.
CMRD predictions for Assam election 2011 are as follows:
|
Party |
2006 status |
Near confirmed win in 2011 |
Possible win in 2011 |
Total |
|
Congress |
53 |
16 |
27 |
43 |
|
AGP |
24 |
17 |
20 |
37 |
|
BPF |
11 |
04 |
04 |
8 |
|
BJP |
10 |
03 |
05 |
8 |
|
AIUDF |
10 |
07 |
08 |
15 |
|
CPI (M) |
2 |
01 |
02 |
3 |
|
Gana shakti |
1 |
01 |
01 |
2 |
|
ASDC |
1 |
– |
– |
– |
|
NCP |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
CPI |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
AGP (P) |
1 |
– |
– |
– |
|
TMC |
0 |
01 |
0 |
1 |
|
PAPA |
– |
02 |
1 |
3 |
|
BPPF |
0 |
01 |
0 |
1 |
|
Independent |
11 |
02 |
04 |
6 |
Data courtesy: CMRD
According to this survey, there is a high possibility of formation of non-Congress government if the non-congress parties could come together.
According to CMRD survey region wise probabilities are as follows:
|
Barak valley: Total seats 15 |
2006 status: Congress 6, BJP 5, AUDF 3, Independent 1 |
|
Probable 2011 status: Congress 8, BJP 3, AIUDF 2, AGP 1, independent 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
North Assam: total seat 6 |
2006 status: Congress 4, Ganashakti 1, Independent 1 |
|
Probable 2011 status: Congress 0, AGP 4, Ganashakti 1, independent 1. |
|
|
Upper Assam: total seats 28 |
2006 status: congress 18, AGP 5, CPI 1, BJP 2, independent 2 |
|
Probable 2011 status: congress 19, AGP 5, BJP 2, Ganashakti 1, TMC 1, independent 0 |
|
|
Middle Assam: total seats 29 |
2006 status: congress 9, BPF 4, AGP 7,AUDF 4, BJP 3, AGP (P)1, independent 1 |
|
Probable 2011 status: congress 8, BPF 2, AGP 10, AIUDF 7, BJP 1, independent 1 |
|
|
Lower Assam: total seat 43 |
2006 status: Congress 12, BPF 7, AGP 12,AUDF 3, CPIM 2, NCP 1, independent 6 |
|
Probable 2011 status: congress 6, BPF 6, AGP 17,AUDF 6, CPIM 3,BJP 2, BPPF 1, independent 2 |
|
|
Hill districts: total seats : 5 |
2006 status: Congress 4, ASDC 1 |
|
Probable 2011 status: Congress may win in 2 and PAPA in 3 |
Jamsher Ali, general secretary, CMRD
Speaking to TwoCircles.net, Jamsher Ali, general secretary of CMRD said, ‘Our data is unique and we are sure of its accuracy which may vary slightly. We did this survey with the help of 126 volunteers in all 126 constituencies. In each constituency our sample size was 200 voters’.
Results of Assam assembly election 2011 are expected by 2 pm on May 13.