By Faisal Fareed, TwoCircles.net
Lucknow: After all what is the issue in 2012 UP assembly elections which the leaders are not able to grasp but the electorate have understood quite convincingly. Even during the passionate era of Mandal-Kamandal, this Hindi heartland could not cross the 57 percent polling.
Psephologists and political analyst may give several reasons with charts and diagrams about the paradigm shift and attribute it to some undercurrent. But what is that undercurrent which is present beneath but there are no signs at all at the surface.
Nobody is being opposed, nobody is being favored, no wave in anybody’s side still two phases have recorded an average of over 60 percent polling. It means that the politicians who considered UP as their laboratory have failed and people have succeeded. After independence, this is the first time when such phenomenon is being displayed.
Another heartening factor is the overwhelming support from fairer sex. Despite intermittent drizzle in first phase, women polled more votes that males. More votes are being polled and the general remark is that it is ‘anti incumbency’ phenomenon. It implies that the government in power is being voted out.
Previous records are behind such conclusion. After 1985 when Congress faded into oblivion no party has been able to record consecutive two wins. Every party, Samajwadi Party (SP), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and Congress are painting the high vote percentage as anti-BSP current.
Congress is attributing it to Rahul’s charisma. SP is seeing it as losing base of BSP due to corruption. BJP is claiming that people are against UPA government so they are polling more votes. But this is the first time since independence that people are turning in such good numbers for exercising their franchise.
In previous 15 elections which UP has seen, people did not come out in such good
numbers. There were moments of frenzy and passionate in the past also. In 1977, it was anti emergency reaction and in 1991 it was Ram Janam Bhoomi movement by BJP but the polling percentage did not cross 55 percent.
To stop BJP, both SP and BSP joined hands in 1993 in a social justice and dalit movement by Mulayam and Kanshiram but still polling did not reach 60 percent. The complex politics of cow belt was not even deciphered in 1999 when it was peak time of Atal Bihari Bajpayee after Kargil war as polling remained at 53 percent only.
So, this high polling percentage has given birth to many questions. The credibility of politicians is at its nadir; there is no clear cut wave in anyone’s favor, still high polling. Why? Before the results are announced on March 6, these analysts will sit in their cool comforts of their chambers and studios and will present several reasoning behind such high polling.
But will they be justified in their comments. UP is witnessing the trend which had occurred in just concluded Punjab and Uttrakhand polls-high voting percentage. We have to keep our finger crossed till polling concludes for all phases and results are declared.