By Md. Ali, TwoCircles.net,
Incumbency encumbers Maya as Mulayam picks up momentum in UP.
New Delhi: Who is going to sit on the throne of UP? “The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind,” as Bob Dylan sang. Well, in a manner of speaking.
The old journalistic way of sensing the “people’s mood” through a road journey in a battered taxi, stopping at every dhaba to chat with the country folk, including the dhaba wallah, does no longer work.
Real people from the locality seem to be knowing by increasing degrees of illumination that matdaan (vote) is gupt (secret). The more gupt, the better.
One way of finding which way the wind is blowing this election season could be asking random voters, but few people volunteer an honest answer. Another is through psephological forecasts, which stands out for not upto the mark, as it was in the defeat of the NDA, in spite of huge ‘India Shining’ campaign.
Interestingly the ‘India Shining’ campaign had won hearts of journalists and psephologists, even though it had failed to impress the Janta Janardhan (India electorate). This is so because the psephologists and media hiring their services are apt to put their own wistful thinking on to the projections.
Can Mayawati repeat her performance of 2007?
Yet another is, you talk to a cross section of journalists on the beat and try to see for yourself whether what they say (different journalists would, of course, say different things) matches your findings. The truth is likely to lie somewhere in between those positions.
For the first time in all these years one hears Dalits saying that BSP rule has not changed their material condition to any degree. Across the board their state of deprivation is virtually the same.
Whatever change for the better is visible today was inevitable in any case as the fast economic changes in the larger society would by default reflect, howsoever lightly, in some small parts of Dalit society as well.
Whatever improvement is visible in Dalit condition today has come as a consequence largely of the dynamics of long-term policies like reservation and other legal and constitutional provisions put in place at the very beginning of the Republic.
Despite good laws relating to the elimination of Dalit utpidan (oppression of Dalits) Uttar Pradesh’s Dalits don’t feel any more secure today compared to the pre-BSP days. Whatever the claims of the government on the issue, Dalits feel as insecure now as they ever felt.
Ironically, Dalits are a highly stratified society: one Dalit caste could be as high as a Brahmin for another Dalit caste, who would be the lowliest of the lowly among the Dalits, looked down upon by the castes higher in the Dalit hierarchy.
In this highly differentiated society all Dalits are not necessarily on the same wavelength as Mayawati’s caste people. This time round, the earlier Dalit attraction to Congress is also visible here and there.
By and large Rahul Gandhi is a mere curiosity to voters of different castes and communities, but there are sections of Dalits who have begun to rediscover their lost interest in Congress (thanks largely to Rahul Gandhi’s assurance and BSP’s indifference). This is bad news mainly for Mayawati and her party.
On the other hand, Congress has not gained any great traction, not enough to be a dominant player. However, it is enough to throw Mayawati off balance.
According to the National Crime Records Bureau, UP still figures high on crimes against Dalits. In 2009, UP had a 22.4 per cent share of crimes against Dalits on an all-India level.
The state share of 624 Dalits murdered in 2009 in India was 37.7 percent; and of the 1,346 SC-ST women raped all over India during the same period, 23.6 belonged to UP. Out of 195 cases of arson attacks on Dalits in the country 38 percent occurred in UP, which does not cast the Mayawati government in a favorable light.
SP chief Mulayam Singh addressing an election rally.
Political analysts also say that Mayawati, on the one hand may lose Hindu upper caste votes, but end up consolidating her core vote base of Dalits. But it’s yet to be seen whether she will successfully be able to retain her Dalit core vote base, because in recent by-election a pattern was seen where SP was able to attract votes from dalit caste like Pasee.
Congress has marginally improved its ratings but it stands much weaker than Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP and Mayawati’s BSP.
There is a huge talk among media about Muslim parties this time. Parties like Peace Party, Ulema Council prominent among others, which were the biggest parts of Ekta Manch, an alliance of small parties, most of which do backward politics. They seem to be talking in quite big terms like emerging as king makers in the process of government in the post- poll scenario.
Interestingly the poll campaign started with the media highlighted them as a potentially “black sheep” but as the election comes nearer, the division in Ekta Manch became quite prominent. Even though the Muslim Political parties were expected to get few seats, Peace Party and Ulema Council walked out of the Ekta Manch and brought the prospect of maximum political potential of the smaller parties to a minimum.
BJP may not be a great challenge to the SP and BSP, the estimated lead and second lead player this time. This time it has not been able to divide society on communal lines, which has always been its winning formula.
Attempts to trigger massive anti-Muslim riots have not generally succeeded anywhere and men in Muslim disguise found creating trouble have been nabbed and identified as non-Muslims belonging to some Hindutva outfit, which is often a front of the RSS.
Importantly, as an after thought the Ram Mandir issue has been resurrected, but it may not ignite passions enough to be effective.
Higher-caste Hindus are wary that if they vote for BJP it would ally with BSP, whose long-term agenda is antithetical to high-caste dominance. In that case their choice would have been Congress, but it is not a winning horse.
Congress is weakened by the recent massacre of Muslims in Bharatpur of Rajasthan which is under Congress rule and Batla House encounter in Delhi under the nose of UPA rule at Centre and Congress rule in Delhi state.
Muslims are convinced that Batla House encounter was fake. The mass arrest and torture of Muslim youth in Congress-ruled states has also turned the Muslim vote off.
Over the years a substantial chunk of Muslim vote has remained loyal to SP through thick and thin. Only when the Babri Masjid breaker Kalyan Singh joined SP there was a partial swing away from Mulayam Singh.
In elections a minor swing is a major factor in defeat or victory. Some of the swing away from Congress, BSP and BJP (of all voters, not just Muslims) has gravitated towards SP and most of the Muslim vote swinging away from Congress and BSP is also gravitating towards SP.
As of now, the SP star seems to be on the ascendant as the Elephant pace slows down.