By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
So the NATO allies on May 21 virtually decided to handover Afghanistan on a silver platter to Iran. They almost did the same in case with Iraq.
At the two-day meeting in Chicago on May 20-21 the war-weary 28-nation strong—or now say weak—NATO alliance decided to handover the power to Afghanistan government by the middle of 2013 and by Dec 31, 2014 they would completely withdraw their forces. Countries like France wanted to do so even much earlier.
In the last two centuries the British tried, rather unsuccessfully, to conquer Afghanistan from the east, the Soviet Union from the north and the US-led NATO from the air with logistic support from Pakistan in the east and Tajikistan in the north. But all these missions yielded little benefits to them.
The biggest question is: after their retreat who would be calling the shot. The Hamid Karzai government is unlikely to control the country which over two dozen powers with 1,30,000 forces could not do in over 11 long years.
So if it collapses who would fill the vacuum? There may be uncertainty or the country may once again plunge into a civil war. But the other prospect is that the Taleban may once again prevail. They are no doubt still strong and have the capability to regroup. Unlike Kandhar this time they may end up as the master of Kabul.
But the post-2014 Taleban may be a little transformed one. It would be without its trusted friends Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE. They were the only countries who used to recognize them when they were in power till 2001. Now they all have sided strongly with the arch-enemy, the United States.
In that scenario the Taleban may be compelled to improve their ties with none else but Shia Iran, which consistently stood against the ‘Great Satan’, the United States of America. There was initial mistrust between Sunni Taleban and Shia-dominated Islamic Republic in Iran when the former was in power. But Taleban have learnt the lesson and are fully aware as to how the Sunni Saudi Arabia left them in lurch, or was forced to do so.
Even Iranians have realized their mistakes in dealing with Taleban and would do everything to expand their influence in Afghanistan—as they are gradually doing in Iraq. The Iranian influence in Afghanistan has already increased even though the NATO forces have not withdrawn yet.
Nearly a third of Afghanistan’s media is backed by Iran, either financially or through providing content. According to reports Iran spends $100 million a year in Afghanistan, much of it on the media, civil society projects and religious schools.
The Iranian sway has increased by default. The western powers have no other option but to leave in a haste. Their economy is not allowing them to control, first Iraq and then Afghanistan.
Iranians have several advantages in the region. It is a big country with sizeable population and is strategically located. Iraq in the west, like Iran itself, is a Shia dominated country while in Afghanistan the languages spoken are very close to Persian. So there is enough scope to expand the Iranian influence in both these two countries.
The United States and its allies perhaps failed to appreciate the importance of geography when they launched their attack on Afghanistan on Oct 8, 2001 and on Iraq on March 19, 2003. If after a decade long bombardment and massacre of innocent people the West ends up increasing the Iranian clout in the region then it is nothing but a humiliating defeat and nothing else. The West lost thousands of its soldiers too in the process while Iran none. Not to speak of nuclear weapon Iran did not need to fire a single shot to gain such control in the region.
After having failed disastrously the West is now playing another card, which too is fraught with danger. There is a plan to form European Union type of federation of six countries of Gulf Cooperation Council. The proposal in this regard came from Saudi Arabia in a recent meeting of foreign ministers of these countries in Riyadh. But apart from Bahrain, which is facing revolt, other small nations such as Kuwait, Oman and UAE did not show much enthusiasm towards the Saudi move as they did not like its domination.
The move was intended to neutralize the growing influence of Iran and even Egypt, from where Saudi Arabia recently called back its ambassador over some dispute. The Kingdom had a very cordial relationship with the then dictator Hosni Mubarak, but not with the present set up. The rise of Muslim Brotherhood in that country has caused uneasiness in the royal families in Riyadh and other tiny Arab states.
These recent developments have further isolated Saudi Arabia, which is among the biggest Arab countries and one of the largest producers of oil.