With the BJP’s convincing win in Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections earlier this week, Congress’ steady decline has deepened further. There is an ominous signal in Maharashtra that forebodes a UP-Bihar like long-standing setback in the western state too.
Going by the records, if a party has polled less than 20 per cent of the total vote cast, it has not returned to power again for decades in that particular state.
But what explains the Congress’ fall so precipitately, particularly after a relatively better showing at the Lok Sabha byelections recently? In Maharashtra, a 15-year long Congress rule had created a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. In Haryana, too, 10 years of Congress rule had created a similar desire for change. This is a major reason for the BJP’s win.
One of the factors is that people generally want to be on the right side of power at the Centre if they want to get a good share of Central help for development projects. Another is that the opposition was badly fragmented. Shiv Sena and MNS were fighting on their own. The NCP was not cooperating with Congress and there was factional infighting within the Congress.
An equally important reason is the disappointment of Muslims with both the NCP and Congress. This is shown in Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM getting 25 percent of the Muslim vote. Two MIM candidates won and seven were in the second position.
The media are busy tom-tomming (Prime Minister) Narendra Modi’s charisma and BJP president Amit Shah’s alleged managerial and organisational skills as the main reason for the victory. But this may not be the whole truth. The single most important reason was that there was a five-corned contest in Maharashtra, in which voters voted straight away for the party ruling at the Centre. Haryana voters too did not want the same party in power a third time.
What does all this add up to? Two more states in BJP’s kitty calls for a serious stocktaking and a better survival strategy for the Congress.
(Dr Mohammad Manzoor Alam Chairman Institute of Objective Studies and General Secretary of All India Milli Council.)