By Rajeev Khanna, IANS
Ahmedabad : As Gujarat prepares to count the millions of votes cast in assembly elections, both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are confident of forming the next government in the state.
Right from Dec 16, when the second and final phase of polling ended, both parties have been claiming that the voting patterns are bound to help them win more seats than what they had in the outgoing assembly.
In 2002, under Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the BJP secured 129 seats in the 182-member house. The Congress got just 51 seats.
The polling percentage then was 61 percent. This time it has been slightly higher. But political observers like Achyut Yagnik mark the difference between the two electoral battles.
“Last time there was a wave. There was the emotive issue of Hindutva. Hindu organisations were out on the streets working for the victory of Modi. This time there was no wave. The voter has been quiet about his preference,” Yagnik told IANS.
All three exit polls for the Gujarat elections conducted by television channels have predicted a BJP win. Star TV has given 103 seats to the BJP, CNN-IBN 92-100 while NDTV’s tally for BJP is 90-110.
Star TV has given 76 seats to the Congress, CNN-IBN 77-85 and NDTV 70-95 seats.
Interestingly, both the BJP and Congress have questioned the veracity of the exit polls on the basis of their past reputation, the sample size of the respondents and the limited periphery from where the samples were collected.
Shashiranjan Yadav of BJP’s IT Cell told IANS: “I do not go by the findings of such polls. They have failed to gauge the presence of a strong under current in favour of Narendrabhai. People have come out in large numbers to vote for the work done in the last five years under his leadership.”
On the other side, Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki says: “The voting pattern showing a higher turnout in rural areas goes in our favour. Traditional Congress voters came out in large numbers. We are sure to form the government.”
Polling was held Dec 11 and 16. In the first phase, Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat regions voted in 87 assembly constituencies. The phase saw 60 percent of the 17.8 million electorate voting.
In the second phase, 63 percent of 11.5 million voters turned out in 95 constituencies of central and north Gujarat regions.
Both the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat for about a decade barring a brief break, and the Congress are busy making arrangements for the counting process.
Party workers Saturday made preparations to record statistics that would emerge once the counting starts at 8 a.m. Sunday.
The BJP camp is witnessing additional activity on account of the issue of notices to senior leaders Keshubhai Patel and Kanshiram Rana who had led the dissidence movement during the elections.
In addition, the BJP has suspended two other leaders, Somabhai Patel and Vallabh Kathiria. There are chances of the dissidence factor putting a dampener on the BJP prospects in Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat regions.
During the campaign for these elections, local issues took a back seat once Modi’s development plank gave way to issues of security and terrorism, becoming the central theme of both the main parties.
The Election Commission had to step in to keep the poll campaign in check after both the Congress and BJP spewed venom at each other.