By Arun Kumar, IANS
Washington : White House hopefuls are taking their gloves off as they gear up for the first qualifying race Thursday in the US presidential contest after a long, hard and hot campaign through the year.
After a series of moderated TV debates over policy issues, aspirants are now changing tack and taking direct swipes at each other in campaign speeches and advertisements as their caravans of buses and vans roll across Iowa, where the first battle looms.
Leading the pack of eight on the Democratic side is Hillary Clinton, the former first lady who was among the first to throw her hat into the ring chiming “I’m in for a win”. But African American Barrack Obama is snapping close at her heels with a promise of “change”.
Painting himself as the true messenger of change, John Edwards, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, too has caught up with the others making the Jan 3 Iowa caucus – a meeting of state party leaders where a candidate must win 15 percent support to stay in the race – too close to call.
On the Republican side the field seems to be wide open with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney running a close race in popularity polls.
But in Iowa, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, once considered a long-shot candidate, has shot into the lead riding on a wave of religious and social conservatism and threatens to deliver a “seismic shock” to the political establishment.
Also catching up fast is Vietnam War veteran John McCain, who came to be known as the “straight talk express” for speaking his mind on issues when he last took a shot at party nomination in 2000.
Another wild card is Ronald Ernest “Ron” Paul, who finished a distant third in the 1988 presidential election, running as the Libertarian nominee while remaining a Republican. With Internet support, Paul raised a record $6 million in a single day by celebrating the Boston Tea Party Dec 16.
The issues that matter to voters range from the war in Iraq and what to do with an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, to health care and taxes. But with violence down in Iraq, since Bush ordered a “surge” in troops earlier this year, the Iraq issue has receded somewhat.
The Dec 27 assassination of former Pakistan premier Benazir Bhutto, upsetting Washington’s carefully laid out plans of bringing stability to key military ally Pakistan, has again brought terrorism and national security to the fore.
The candidates have been quick to tout their experience and crisis management skills to buttress their presidential credentials. If Hillary Clinton cites her eight-year stay in the White House as first lady, Giuliani keeps harping on what he did as New York mayor in the aftermath of 9/11.
Obama dismisses Clinton’s past contacts with foreign leaders like Bhutto as ‘tea party’ relationships and counters his own lack of experience by citing the case of Bill Clinton.
Edwards called Musharraf shortly after Bhutto’s assassination. A trailing Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made it known that he had asked Musharraf twice to provide more security to Bhutto.
But Huckabee put his foot in the mouth by suggesting that the US build a wall along its border with Mexico to prevent illegal Pakistanis coming in.
Iowa is only the first stop – in a series of caucuses of state party leaders and primary elections where citizen vote to indicate their preferences – the aspirants must go through before they win the nomination at the two parties’ national conventions in August.
But Iowa has emerged as an election bellwether since the 1970s when it was made “first in the nation” by law. New Hampshire follows with the first primary. A win in Iowa or New Hampshire does not ensure final victory, but it sure provides a candidate momentum.
No wonder most of the candidates are focusing most on Iowa and New Hampshire, which holds its primary just five days after the Iowa caucuses. But not Giuliani, who has largely bypassed Iowa and New Hampshire in a strategy that places greater emphasis on the Jan 29 Florida primary and Feb 5 “Super Duper Tuesday” or Tsunami Tuesday”.
With many states moving their primaries and caucuses earlier to try to limit the impact Iowa and New Hampshire have on the race, as many as 22 states including California, New York, Missouri and North Dakota are holding their nominating contests that day.
“It’s going to be a great year and the first 20, 30, 35 days of the year are going to be something like 29 primaries and caucuses,” said Giuliani. “So, it’s going to happen swift, fast and I believe we are going to win.”
So does everyone else believe, with Democrats highlighting Iraq and health care and the Republicans focusing on immigration and national security.
But it will be a different ball game, come Nov 4, 2008, when the two major party nominees would have to win over independent and moderate voters with a more centrist approach to make it to the White House.