New Delhi, Nov 29 (IANS) India’s bilateral trade will decline some 20 percent with Pakistan, which is grappling with a major political turmoil, the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham) said Thursday.
Projected to touch $2.7 billion in the current fiscal (2007-08), the bilateral trade will not cross $2.1 billion and stagnate at that level, the industry lobby said, quoting an internal study.
“The shocks of political instability in Pakistan have been observed on India’s cross-border trade,” said chamber president Venugopal N. Dhoot, quoting the study, entitled “Pakistan Political Scenario & Its Impact on India”.
“Indian businessmen and small merchants, who were contemplating to set up trade relations with it, have now held their plans,” Dhoot said, while acknowledging the recent bilateral efforts to facilitate cross-border trade.
As per official estimates, bilateral trade in 2006-07 had recorded an increase of 88 percent and stood at $1.6 billion. It was envisaged to grow to $2.7 billion.
India’s exports to Pakistan were $1.2 billion, showing an increase of 96 percent, while imports from that country were $320 million, an 80 percent jump over the previous year.
The two sides had recently allowed trucks to cross the Wagah border and traders were planning to trade in bulk commodities and enhance bilateral trade by over 100 percent a year in the next three years.
Within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), India’s share in Pakistan’s total trade since 2001 had increased at almost 50 percent and Assocham apprehends the turmoil would affect intra-regional trade.