By RIA Novosty political commentator Pyotr Goncharov
Moscow : The presidential elections will take place in Pakistan as scheduled – on October 6. The only possible forecast is Pervez Musharraf’s re-election.
In the last moment Musharraf took two decisions to guarantee his victory in the elections. First, he named his successor as supreme commander. Second, the government dismissed all accusations against the former prime minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto, who leads the influential Pakistani People’s Party (PPP). No doubt, this decision was sanctioned by Musharraf.
The world media are paying so much attention to the presidential elections in Pakistan not only because of the pre-election escalation of tensions in that country although it is also worth discussing.
On the one hand, the dismissal of Pakistan’s Chief Justice caused uproar in the country. The democratically-minded and simply moderate strata of society withdrew support for the ruling regime. On the other hand, the latter’s image was heavily damaged by its haphazard actions against a small group of the radicals in the Red Mosque located in downtown Islamabad. Finally, massive protests, accompanied by bloody clashes with law-enforcement bodies have brought the situation to the boiling point. On top of all that, Musharraf has finally spoilt relations with his Afghan counterpart Khamid Karzai.
But there is another aspect of the current situation in Pakistan. The question is whether Pakistan will stick to the road of building a moderate Islamic state and further developing the constitutional and parliamentary foundations and civil democratic institutions. Won’t it become hostage to the radical fundamentalists and Islamic extremists who have become active there of late?
The majority of international observers believe that the Musharraf regime is a reliable guarantor of Pakistan’s continued existence as a secular state. Nobody dares even predict what happens in the event of his loss, especially considering that Pakistan is a nuclear country.
But Musharraf is bound to win. The political alignment of forces is definitely in his favor. Under Pakistani law, the president is elected by representatives of parliament and four provincial assemblies. Musharraf’s ruling party and Bhutto’s PPP have an impressive parliamentary majority. Resignation of 86 MPs has been indicative in this context. Its goal was not so much to wreck the elections as to belittle Musharraf’s success. The recently-formed alliance of fundamentalist parties Muttahida-Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), adjacent extremist organizations and the Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Muslim League could be Musharraf’s main rival if they united in a single political movement. Judging by all, this has not yet happened. Sharif (ex prime minister like Bhutto) has always been cautious about alliances with fundamentalists. They have only agreed to boycott the elections. So, the demarche of the resigned MPs has not threatened anyone.
The media has published a list of presidential candidates – Musharraf, two PPP nominees (Musharraf guarantees the prime minister’s position to Bhutto), the Senate’s chairman and the Chief Justice of the Sind Province. Musharraf has no serious rivals but this is not the point.
He will win this time but this does not guarantee political stability in Pakistan. The main events will unfold after the parliamentary elections, which should be held no later than January 8, 2008.
Sharif has already announced his determination to run for the prime minister. There is every reason to believe that the MMA, the extremists and Sharif’s Muslim League will strike an alliance by the parliamentary elections. In this case, the Musharraf and Bhutto supporters are likely to lose their absolute majority.
More often than not, substantial presence of Islamist radicals in parliament has led to military coups d’etat in Pakistan.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.