By Arun Kumar, IANS
Washington : US policymakers have been asked to offer forthright support for “genuinely free and fair elections” in Pakistan to address the twin challenges posed by a decline in political legitimacy and violent extremism there.
Washington urgently needs to re-position itself so that a weakened Musharraf government and an eventual successor can work with the United States without risking its political life, a noted Pakistan expert told a US House panel Wednesday.
“How can we do this?” asked Teresita C. Schaffer, Director, South Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee on security challenges involving Pakistan.
Her own prescription: “Start with forthright support for genuinely free and fair elections. Don’t make excuses for the repressive actions of the government. Give high priority to our economic assistance, and use it in ways that benefit people.”
Describing it as a “critical time in a country that matters profoundly to US security”, Schaffer noted that President Pervez “Musharraf has been seriously weakened, the major non-religious political figures have been diminished, and the US has been publicly involved in the deal-making leading to Pakistan’s next government.
“The biggest security challenge for the US, however, comes from the newly emboldened violent extremists who are challenging the authority of the Pakistani state,” she said.
Tracing Musharraf’s current problems to his “ill-advised decision” six months ago to try to fire the chief justice that unleashed strong pent-up frustration, Schaffer said his response, a series of repressive measures, left him significantly weaker than before.
Expecting Musharraf’s election to be eventually confirmed by the Supreme Court and legislative elections to be held in January, she predicted “the government that follows these elections is likely to be an uneasy one.
“Musharraf will be one power centre. He believes in ‘unity of command,’ and is not interested in power sharing,” Schaffer said, suggesting both his political party and perhaps the army will be strongly tempted to manipulate the election to minimise former prime minister Benazir’s Bhutto’s claim on power.
“If Bhutto does participate in government, she will strongly defend her turf. And assuming that Musharraf does retire from the army, that institution will be under new leadership, and will be a distinct power centre no matter how careful Musharraf has been to promote officers loyal to him,” Schaffer said.
But the government’s biggest challenge will be a nasty and violent campaign by extremists, both those connected with the Afghan Taliban and home-grown movements that had been brazenly defying the government’s authority last summer in Islamabad’s Red Mosque, she said.
An effective response to this kind of campaign requires a canny mixture of military and political tools, Schaffer said noting that there was no evidence that the Pakistan army has adequate counter-insurgency skills, or that the government has the political tools needed to integrate the tribal areas into Pakistan.
She supported the Bush administration’s request for development funds for the tribal areas, but this will be the work of a generation. “In the meantime, the Pakistan government and army will probably use their traditional approach: maintaining relations with the extremists while trying to keep them under control.
“Musharraf may see this hedging tactic as a way to keep some sympathy from the religious parties. In other words, where the US has hoped for boldness, we may find a newly cautious Musharraf,” Schaffer warned.
“What makes this heady mix of political turmoil and extremist challenge particularly dangerous is the change in the US position in Pakistan,” she said, noting that a number of Pakistani people called the campaign in Afghanistan “America’s war” and Musharraf’s opponents have made the US a symbol of opposition to him.
And the deep US involvement in Musharraf’s effort to work out a political understanding with Benazir Bhutto has reinforced the perception that the United States is choosing Pakistan’s government with no regard for the wishes of the Pakistani people.
“We have set ourselves up to be blamed for all the shortcomings of Pakistan’s government – and have set the stage for a successor government to use anti-Americanism as a rallying cry at a time when the US needs more than ever to make a common front against terror with the governments in both Kabul and Islamabad,” Schaffer said.
Stressing an urgent need for Washington to re-position itself, she suggested that it emphasise the primacy of civilian leadership, while working with the Pakistani army on military issues – including helping it address its shortcomings in counterinsurgency without building up its political role.
The US also needs to give top priority to developing a common strategy with Pakistan on Afghanistan, she said, describing it as critical for America’s anti-terrorism goals as also critical to the effort to stabilise Pakistan.
“The continuing insurgency in Afghanistan and its ability to find shelter in Pakistan feeds the extremist threat within Pakistan,” Schaffer said.