London, Oct 22, IRNA,A new study warned Monday that world oil production will fall by half as soon as 2030 and that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
According to the report by Energy Watch Group (EWG), world oil production peaked in 2006, much earlier than experts had expected, and will fall by half as soon as 2030.
Its prediction that production will fall by 7 per cent a year comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on hitting more than 80 dollars per barrel (dpb) on Friday.
EWG, a German-based independent think-tank, released its new study in London. Its warning, based more upon production data, contrasts to International Energy Agency projections by the, which suggest there is little reason to worry about oil supplies.
“The most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak,” said the report’s Jorg Schindler, a scientist and a managing director of Ludwig-Bolkow-Systemtechnik.
“Since crude oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil, the future oil availability is of paramount importance,” Schindler said.
German MP, Hans-Josef Fell, who founded EWG, warned there was a “huge problem” for the world economy. “The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling,” he said.
The report said that official industry estimates put global oil reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels, equivalent to 42 years’ supply at current consumption rates, but believed the figure is only about two thirds of that.
Global oil production, which is currently around 81 million barrel per day, was expected to fall to just 39 m by 2030. Significant falls were also predicted in gas, coal and uranium production as energy sources are used up.
Fell warned that the world had to move quickly towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy efficiency. “If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis,” he suggested.