New Delhi, March 22, IRNA – India is emerging as an important gas market. By 2015, country’s natural gas demands is expected to reach as much as 320 Million Metric Standard Cubic Metres Per Day (mmscmd), making it a larger gas market than Japan.
“The current demand of 166 mmscmd– made up of nearly 132 mmscmd supplies from domestic fields and the rest from imported LNG– is likely to rise to at least a minimum of 230 mmscmd and a maximum of 320 mmscmd by 2015”, said a report released Monday in New Delhi at the 6th Asia Gas Partnership Summit.
There was an upside of 280 mmscmd if gas was made available at a delivered price of $10-11 per million British thermal unit.
“At these levels, the use of natural gas becomes economical, despite the required switching costs and additional investment. This demand would be driven by the refining and petrochemical industry (35 mmscmd), the power sector (5 mmscmd) and city gas distribution (about 10-12 mmscmd),” the report said.
There was a total potential of 310-320 mmscmd if gas is used to ease peaking power deficits in India, said the report prepared by McKinsey and Company.
“India’s peak power shortages are projected to worsen from a 17 percent peak deficit in 2009 (shortfall of 23 gigawatts of peak supply) to close to a 25 percent peak deficit by 2015 and a resultant shortfall of more than 60 GW of peak supply,” it said.
Even if hydro power was tapped to its full potential, it would still leave a peak shortfall of around 32 GW to 40 GW by 2015. “Even if half the peak shortfall were met, a gas demand of 30 mmscmd to 40 mmscmd will arise.”
“To manage this impending growth, India’s natural gas industry will require investments of around $40 billion to $50 billion across the value chain.
“With these investments and demand growth, the industry revenue pool could double to $50 billion by 2015 from $25 billion today. The industry’s gross profit pool would be around $30 billion, almost double of today’s level,” it said.