By Ajaz Ahmed for TwoCircles.net,
When the uprisings began, it appeared that a positive change is coming to the Arab world. Hope began to rise for people who were eyeing their say in governmental matters. Youth dreamt of ending the unemployment problems and writing their destiny on their own. The under privileged began to see an end to their economic woes. Outside forces were quick to throw their weight behind the uprisings in form of whatever overt and covert support. But vested interests who were already looking for opportunities found the atmosphere conducive to push their agenda further. The awakening is gradually turning into a different kind of conflict – religious, sectarian or ideological. Such a conflict, if not contained, could prove dangerously counter- productive to the entire Middle East, and beyond.
In Egypt where Muslims and the Copts have all along lived side by side in harmony are now seeing their Mosques attacked and Churches burnt. The Bahrain demonstrations were more on sectarian lines pitting Shiite majority against the Sunni clan holding power from centuries. This conflict though seems to have been contained by the GCC coalition, but tempers have not cooled down yet. Moreover its repercussions can be seen as far as Pakistan. Pakistan, a state already in turmoil and international criticism has a known history of violent Shia-Sunni clashes till the recent past. The suppression of Bahraini uprising can revive this conflict, as many of the Bahraini security forces comprises of other nationals as naturalized citizens, many of them from Pakistan.
The other day Jordan broke up a demonstration by Salafi activists. Things are moving the similar way in Syria where the predominantly Alawi regime, which is more inclined towards Iran, is up against the Sunni protestors. In Yemen too, the Houthis gave a tough time to the government earlier and has now adopted a “wait and watch” strategy. The Houthi’s which appears to be influenced by Iran, has already tested Saudi Arabia’s resolve with a brief incursion through the southern border.
The Libyan war too is based on somewhat similar lines where the regime holds on to a school of thought which is not popular among the other Arab regimes. When the uprisings began, voices were also being raised by some Alawi’s in Turkey to take to the streets. The uprisings are taking the region towards a very volatile future. If the region is to be taken path of democracy and progress, the sectarian nature of the awakening needs to be contained. What happened after the forceful change in Iraq is open for everybody to see. Never before did we see devastation and violence of this scale among the Shia-Sunni in the recent history, as we saw after the American invasion of Iraq. The less said about the Arab League, the better, which is always plagued by internal differences. Ironic is the stand of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Conference), which still looks the other way where as the region continues to bleed, and the awakening turns darker.
—
Ajaz Ahmed, an Indian national residing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A Systems Analyst by profession, writes on topics and issues pertaining to the Muslim world. Can be reached at [email protected]