By Amulya Ganguli, IANS,
The bugle has been sounded and the country is poised for another bruising round of elections which will make or mar the reputations of several parties and politicians.
Some of the participants are already in the field. Among them is L.K. Advani, 84, of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and an opponent who is 40 years younger, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that the two will confront each other as prime ministerial candidates in three years’ time.
For the present, however, the focus is on Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest province of 200 million that may soon be cut up into four small states if the Chief Minister and Dalit leader Mayawati’s proposal becomes a reality.
True to her distinctive in-your-face style, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader has bamboozled everyone by her unexpected decision. If her objective was to divert attention from her supposed weak points – the penchant for erecting statues of herself and other Dalit icons, the lack of development, the health sector scams which have claimed the lives of several medical officers – then she has undoubtedly succeeded.
Now, the debate will be on the pros and cons of breaking up Uttar Pradesh with a special emphasis on the divisive impact of the move on Telangana and Darjeeling, not to mention the protagonists of other small regions like Vidarbha. Not surprisingly, the proposal has been opposed by the Samajwadi Party and the BJP, which intend to bring a no-confidence motion against the Mayawati government in the state assembly while the Congress, typically, is seemingly unable to make up its mind.
Its dithering can be partly explained by the fact that its latest ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s Ajit Singh favours the division. So does Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, bringing to the fore another instance of a difference of opinion between his Janata Dal- United and its ally, the BJP.
Mayawati’s own future will also come under a scanner. As it is, the BSP is unlikely to be able to repeat its feat of securing a majority on its own in Uttar Pradesh. It is difficult to say, therefore, to what extent her latest gambit will be seen as an initiative for better administration or for playing on a smaller stage since the larger one may slip out of her grasp.
Whatever her calculations, the speciality of the Uttar Pradesh election is that neither of the two main parties there – the BSP and the Samajwadi Party – will have any role to play in the four other states which will also be going to the polls. Of them, Punjab and Gujarat will attract almost equal attention although the outcomes there are more predictable.
What is more, the two national parties – the Congress and the BJP – will play a key role in these two states whereas they are expected to bring up the rear in Uttar Pradesh where the BSP and the Samajwadi Party will dominate. But, although the Congress can be regarded as a marginal party in Uttar Pradesh, its fortunes there are tied up with Rahul Gandhi’s aspirations.
If the Congress falls behind the BJP to a fourth position, then the heir apparent’s prime ministerial ambitions will suffer a jolt. The shock will be all the greater because the Congress did unexpectedly well in the 2009 parliamentary polls in the state, winning 22 of the 80 seats. Moreover, its success was ascribed to Rahul Gandhi’s campaigning. In fact, so elated was the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family and the Congress about the possibility of a revival of its prospects in the Hindi heartland that the party decided to go it alone in the Bihar assembly elections in 2010 – with disastrous results.
Arguably, Rahul Gandhi hasn’t quite recovered from that setback. The earlier expectation that his identification with youth power will help the Congress scale new heights has been belied. Much depends, therefore, on how the party fares in Uttar Pradesh. Even if it comes out on top in Punjab, which generally follows the Kerala model of choosing rivals in alternate elections, and manages a creditable second position in Gujarat, it is Uttar Pradesh which will determine the Congress’ frame of mind for the big test in 2014.
Interestingly, Rahul is not the only PM wannabe in these contests. So is Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. If the latter wins a successive third term in Gujarat, his case for the coveted post will be considerably strengthened. But such are the complexities of Indian politics that Modi’s own party and its friend, philosopher and guide, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), will not be delighted because he is seen as his own man who takes no dictation from anyone.
(19.11.2011 – Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected])