By IANS,
New Delhi : The Samajwadi Party is likely to win 130-170 seats and finish on top of a hung 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly, according to an opinion poll.
The ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may finish with between 65 and 105 seats, says the survey posted www.LensOnElections.com
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress would at number three and four spots, winning 70-85 seats (BJP) and 55-70 seats (Congress).
Congress ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) could win 15-20 seats, it said.
With a projected tally of 65-105 seats, the BSP is likely to win between half and one-third of the seats it won in the 2007 assembly polls when it took power on its own strength.
The staggered Uttar Pradesh electoral battle begins Wednesday. The seventh and final round of polling will be held March 3.
The survey said there was a strong possibility of the BSP finishing third in the race behind the BJP.
This could happen even if, as is likely, the BSP gets as much as 5 percent more votes than the BJP.
While this may sound like a mathematical absurdity, such anomalies are common in first-past-the-post electoral system, particularly in the Indian context.
In this election, the survey said that there was is clearly going to be a keen battle for the second slot.
Compared to 2007, the Congress was set to make big gains but would still behind the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the BJP.
“The principal reason for this is the lack of strong support for the party from any caste and community,” it said.
But if a Lok Sabha election was held, Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi was likely to make a good impact. “His campaigning is laying a good foundation for the coming Lok sabha battle.”
The BSP is likely to get just 2 percentage points less in votes as compared to the Samajwadi Party and was ahead of the BJP and the Congress by a whopping 5 and 9 percentage points respectively.