Dr.Mohammad Nazrul Bari,
Today it looks right what Ranke said that “what we learn from history is that we do not learn anything from history.” It’s really very sad to see the situation in west Asia. But mind it, this problem is nothing to do with Shia and Sunni. If it is so, then why Saudi Arab and other loyal towards USA is not highlighting the problems in Bahrain (where Shia are in majority, ruled by Sunni minority)?
Saddam was an undisputed dictator, he killed 5000 people with poisonous gas as it was reported. But US and his allies at the time of attacking Iraq said that Saddam is having Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) so to save the humanity we have to remove him and find WMD. Two years ago Tony Blair, former English P.M. said that it was an intelligence failure there was no WMD in Iraq. Since US attack on Iraq, more than 10 Lakhs people died. So who will take the responsibility of killing lakhs of people and who may be punished?
The NATO forces, headed by US, attacked over Afghanistan to eliminate Taliban and Al Qaida in 1998 on the name of establishing democracy. Now USA is talking to Taliban in Qatar. Recently news published with reference of Talibani leader in the English daily, “The Hindu”, that Sunni radical group, Taliban is now sending their militia to fight inside Syria against the ruling establishment. While Al Noosra, a sister organization of Al Qaida is receiving support from American allies in Syria. Even two month ago Al Zawahiri, the leader in command of Al Qaida from Iraq declared support to Syrian rebels. Last month only US has informed his people that there might be an attack of Al Qaida in America while they have given supply of 3200 tons of weapons to Syrian rebels including Al Nusra. Its looks funny that how America do not know that to whom they are giving support against Syria.
If Saudi Arab is a champion of Sunni cause then why they spent 1 billion dollar to start a military coup in Egypt against Morsi. As I know that Morsi was not a Shia. His crime was simple, he opposes the attack of Israel on Syria and he wants solution of Syrian problem through negotiation.
I want to make it clear that neither I am not the sympathizer of Bashr Al Asad in Syria nor I am against the Saudis led group. But Iran is the only country in whole Middle East who had some genuine interest in Palestine cause and the majority of Palestinian is Sunni. Its true, Iran is using the land of Syria to provide the arms and ammunition to Hamas and Hizbollah. If Syria will go from the hand of Bashar then Iran might be under attack. Then there will be big mess in west Asia.
It is not right to portray the Syrian conflicts predominantly in terms of religious and political struggle between Suuni and Shia. This description is misleading and incomplete. This is thoroughly modern political disturbance for thoroughly modern reasons of national interests and regional hegemony in which ideology, ethnic rivalries and religious fervor played their parts but not central to the main issues. At the same time it is not the war between Christian and Islam. The article written by Yassin Musharbash proves that Al-Qaida kills eight times more Muslims than non-Muslims. Syria is one of the most strategic locations for natural gas pipelines to Europe. Syria is the site of proposed construction of massive underground pipeline and if, completed, could drastically undercut the strategic energy power of US and its ally Qatar and also would cut Turkey(Turkey is also supporting rebels in Syria) out of the pipeline flow. This project will ultimately favour Russia and Iran against western energy interests. In 2010, Iraq, Iran and Syria signed a deal in 2010 to construct the 3480 mile natural gas pipeline connecting Iran’s south Pars field to European customers. If we believe Iranian Deputy Oil minister, Javed Oji, then the capacity of this pipeline is around 3.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.
Javed Jamil is very much right in his observation that the military action in Syria would perhaps never turn into reality. USA is now more interested in perpetuating civil wars rather than starting new wars in west Asia. The problem is that Russia and China have taken a much tougher stand against American threats than they have done anytime before in the last three decades and the Iranian angle makes things more worse. The world, which had become unipolar with the end of the Cold War in 1990s, again may become bipolar. The old Communist bloc can have a bigger and more open support of the resurgent Islamic world this time. This may puncture the balloon of the myth of dependence of Middle East on US and his allies. The America definitely not wants any direct interference of Russia and China in his colonize region of west Asia since 1950s. Secondly, sixty percent of Americans oppose intervention in Syria, according to a recent Reuters poll. Just nine percent support intervention. Even if the use of chemical weapons is proven, just 25 percent of Americans would support intervention.
If US attacked Syria, the Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of 16.5-17 million barrels, which is roughly 40 percent of all seaborne traded oil. The majority of oil exported through this route travels to Asia, the United States and Western Europe.
The closure of Strait of Hormuz would require the use of longer alternate routes at increased transportation costs because alternate routes include the 745 miles-long Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, across Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq to the Red Sea. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would affect the Arab world directly and the globe indirectly which leads to the price hike of oil products.
(Dr.Mohammad Nazrul Bari is the Assistant Professor at the Department of History in the Central University of Karnataka.)