By M Reyaz, TwoCircles.net,
Sambhal/Aligarh: “After the Muzaffarnagar riots the last thread of trust with SP too has been broken, but how can we trust Mayawati? She had formed the government thrice in past in alliance with the BJP, and I fathom she can again side with them. I will vote for Barq Saheb though as he is one of the few leaders who thinks for the community,” Inamur Rahman of Sambhal in Uttar Pradesh told me just two days before the election.
Dr. Shafiqurrahman Barq is the Samjwadi Party candidate from Sambhal that went on poll on April 20.
As I travelled to some of the districts in UP, this was the common refrain I often heard every time I was talking to Muslim voters, who might be angry with the party, but still lamented the lack of choice. To be fair, SP still enjoys the support of many Muslims, who are not ready to accept that Muzaffarnagar riots and that of 2002 Gujarat riots can be compared, but large number of Muslims are angry against Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav.
Muslim voters of the state appear confused, to say the least. On one side there is ‘fear’ of BJP candidates winning if Muslim votes get divided, but on the other hand they are not sure whom to trust. Congress was anyway very weak in the state but this time they might get even more disseminated, and thus the voters are often required to choose between the BSP and the SP.
Consequently, in several constituencies that have polled so far, many of which have sizeable Muslim population, while Hindu voters appeared to get consolidated under ‘Modi wave,’ Muslim votes were getting divided among Congress, SP and BSP. To make matter worse, in some places there are other smaller regional parties like Peace Party, Rashtirya Ulama Council, Quami Ekta Dal who too would cut into some votes, besides of course the new found love of the community, particularly the educated youth towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Historian at the Aligarh Muslim University and political commentator Dr Mohammad Sajjad, however, is critical of how Muslim elites in the state are looking at the two riots by two different prisms. “A section of UP Muslims are choosing to ignore Muzaffarnagar massacre and many more riots across UP during March 2012 – 2013 under the Akhilesh administration and are voting for SP,” he says, terming it as “duplicity not confusion.”
He further explained that even though not everywhere there is a “clear cut intra-Muslim division” in electoral preferences, adding that a large number of “Common Muslims have been voting for BSP.”
He, however, agreed that there is “confusion” on which of the parties/candidates would really defeat BJP in a given seat, and hence the apparent “Muslims’ tactical voting may go wrong.”
Muslim voters are thus scattered in all directions, while under perceived Modi wave, particularly the upper caste Hindu votes have got consolidated, that may give BJP edge in several constituencies.