By A.Mirsab, TwoCircles.net,
Mumbai: In a first of its kind of election in Maharashtra when five non-allied major parties are in the fray of assembly polls due on 15th October, voters from Dalit community that comprises 10.6% population of the state can prove vital if they collectively vote for a particular party. Muslim voters, on the other hand, who form 12-14% of the population in the state, are bound to split this time around due to breaking of NCP-INC alliance and also due to debut of MIM here.
Ramdas Athawale, head of RPI and one of the larger representatives of Dalits in the state, has already chosen to dump Shiv Sena (SS) and allied with the BJP in the aftermath of breaking of 25 years of BJP-SS alliance in the state. Athawale demanded 10 assembly seats and BJP conceded eight seats, besides a share in power if the alliance forms the government after the October 15 elections.
RPI’s support to BJP is viewed as crucial for gaining Dalit votes as RPI is one of the largest political groups in the state representing dalit votes.
On the other hand, former minister in the Congress government during 1999-2004 and the dalit leader from Vidarbha region, Sulekha Kumbhare on Sunday announced “unconditional” support of her organization Bahujan Republican Ekta Manch (BREM) to BJP for assembly elections.
The support extended by Sulekha Kumbhare, an important Dalit leader who is a labour lawyer in her profession, is a boost for BJP as there are 60 seats in Vidarbha region which is also a stronghold of dalits.
Earlier Kumbhare had campaigned for Congress in recent Lok Sabha polls but at the last moment has decided to support BJP this time in assembly elections due to seat sharing differences with Congress.
Addressing reporters, Kumbhare said on Sunday that she was “wholeheartedly” supporting the BJP and accused the Congress of not keeping its poll promise made to her. She said that Congress had offered BREM only two seats out of 10 seats it had demanded.
Athawale and Kumbhare’s support to BJP will help Dalits in controlling division of their votes and hence would rather help BJP candidates in respective constituencies as Maratha, Muslims and OBCs votes are bound to get divided within NCP, INC, MNS and MIM.
As for the Muslims, they have 10 Muslim sitting MLAs in the state who are again contesting on the tickets of NCP, INC and SP. Five amongst them were the ministers in the NCP-INC government in the state.
As the alliance between NCP-INC has broken, both parties are now fielding candidates against each other because of which Muslim populated seats are going to see Muslim against Muslim from these two parties. Samajwadi Party (SP) which is active in Mumbai will also field its Muslim face in those seats due to sudden dropping of alliance offer by INC.
On top of that aspiring MIM is also fielding its Muslim candidate from the same seat thereby providing unwanted options for Muslim voters which is bound to divide their votes.
All Muslim populated seats of Mumbai in particular and other regions in general will have at least four Muslim candidates from different parties as all the parties including little impacting parties such as SP, MIM, Welfare Party of India and debuting Indian Muslims United League (IMUL) has decided to field its candidate from all Muslim populated seats in the state.
In such a scenario, Muslim votes will not have that much impact in the election as that of Dalit votes when its leaders have decided to go with BJP hoping to bring economic and political benefits to the community considering that even if BJP fails to form government in the state it has much more power at the center.
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