By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
A Muslim Party can “have at least 5-10 MLAs and 2-3 MPs from each state,” and yet make “sure that the credible secular party wins and comes to power” only in an article in twocircles.net––or elsewhere––or in any research paper, and not in reality. The truth is that there are several more smart factors which can neutralize “Smart Muslim Vote Model (SMVM)” as floated by Masood Siddiqui in his piece: “Smart Muslim Vote Model (SMVM) for dual leadership of Muslims with regards to Nitish, Kejriwal and Owaisi (TCN, Nov 17, 2015).
As this ‘smart’ idea has failed in Bihar where Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen drew a blank and BJP was stopped, there may be hardly any taker of this “Division of Labour” theory.
The inherent problem with such ideas is that they tend to believe that only one side of electorate can vote smartly while others are fools and have no sense whatsoever. The author must understand that there are several groups and parties who have a much longer term plan and strategy to pre-empt any such SMVM.
Besides, in democracy things often do not go as one wishes. For example, till 2013 there was no such party called Aam Admi Party. By February 2015 it came to power with over 54 per cent popular votes in Delhi.
BJP, the biggest party, which claims to espouse the cause of Hindus, who form about 80 per cent of Delhi’s population, got just three seats, when the saffron party has a good quota of very smart voters. On the other hand the Congress was completely wiped out. How can a party of Muslims, with just 15 per cent votes, dream of winning 5-10 seats in every state?
One needs to study the recent Bihar election a bit carefully. In highly polarized stage the third party got extinct. Barring CPI (ML), which could win three seats in the House of 243 no other party, could open its account though Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, CPI and CPI (M) ––as always–– contested the election.
After the disastrous defeat of Bihar MIM chief, Akhtar-ul-Iman from Kocha Dhaman in Kishanganj district, a seat with overwhelming Muslim population, Masood Siddiqui and company should understand that in the polarized atmosphere created by the BJP nobody was going to listen to their argument of having 5-10 MLAs of a Muslim Party and yet let secular parties win in the rest; and thus come to power. There is always an innate risk of division of one’s own votes and victory of the party, which needs to be stopped––for instance, BJP in the case of Bihar.
Winning one or two seats by fluke –– as by MIM in Maharashtra –– cannot be cited as a rule as sometimes even independent, with little social base and resources wins. Four of them won in Bihar.
What Masood Siddiqui failed to appreciate is that India, unlike several western democracies, has a multi-party system. It is generally argued that running the government is a bit easy and smooth affairs in the two-party system. But it is also a fact that the existence of regional and smaller parties often helps the weaker sections of the societies and minority groups and is better for federal structure.
However, repeated attempts have been made in the direction of making India a two-party or maximum three-party system. Even the merger of Janata Party or later the Janata Dal experiment was made to reduce the number of parties at least at the national level. If not two-party, two-alliance system is fast developing in India where the third force is getting extinct in several states.
Suppose two-party or three-party system becomes a reality how would Muslims accommodate themselves? The community should be prepared for such an eventuality.
The minorities and other weaker sections have to create their own space and get their “demand” fulfilled in several western democracies with two- or three-party system.
The example of Jews, African-Americans and Latinos can be cited in the United States. Democratic Party is the natural ally of these minority groups though at times many of them vote for Republicans too. Jews have, in particular, succeeded in creating a very strong lobby in both the parties.
Masood Siddiqui went overboard in glorifying the efforts made by Asaduddin Owaisi and said that age is on his side. The truth is that MIM’s success in Hyderabad is an achievement of his father and grandfather.
The author did not write a word on Akbaruddin Owaisi, the second in command. Asaduddin and Akbaruddin can be equated to Vajpayee and Advani in the BJP. Akbaruddin has the talent to cause counter-polarisation and benefit the rightist parties. That is why the BJP leaders were repeatedly making references to the Owaisis during the Bihar Assembly election.
Thanks to the maturity shown by the leaders of grand alliance as well as both Hindu and Muslim voters the Owaisis failed to make any impact.
What Masood Siddiqui needs to understand is that Muslims have achieved more than just security in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal under the regional secular parties than what MIM has accomplished in United Andhra Pradesh in the last 88 years of its existence. Mind it the party has failed to come out of Old Hyderabad in that very state (Telangana), where 60 per cent Muslims live below poverty line.
The author cites the example of Kerala, Assam and United Andhra Pradesh to buttress his point, when the fact is that he is nullifying his own argument. He must ask as to why Indian Union Muslim League could not become a pan-India party in so many decades and why Badruddin Ajmal’s AUDF is yet to enter even neighbouring West Bengal, when there is such a big Bengali-speaking Muslim population.
Salahuddin Owaisi, the father of the present leader, never ventured out as he was aware of the limitations of a very small regional party like MIM, which is essentially a party of Muslims of Old Hyderabad state, and not the entire India.
State-based parties like Samajwadi Party, BSP, Janata Dal (United), RJD, NCP, Trinaoool Congress, AIADMK etc find it extremely difficult to expand to the neighbouring states even though they have the same social base.
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(Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist. He writes on political, social, national and international issues.)