By Shafeeq Hudawi, Twocircles.net
The bypoll for Malappuram seat, following the death of Indian Union Muslim League national president E Ahamed, is likely to be a cakewalk for the party, given a host of factors that seem to be working in favour of the party. The IUML leadership is confident of emerging as winners in the elections that take place on April 12.
According to reports, the absence of fringe Muslim parties which could have split the Muslim vote along with the dissent among Muslims against the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government is clearly working in the favour of IUML. After having few nervous moments due to errors in nomination papers, IUML candidate P K Kunhalikutty, as well as his companions, are now confident that the party will sail into an easy win in the constituency.
“All is well here. The party will win the election,” said IUML Malappuram district general secretary KNA Khader.
The party enjoyed a landslide victory in the 2014 Parliament election, with the late E Ahamed cruising home with a record margin of 1,95,339 votes. In 2014, IUML leader E Ahamed bagged 55.13% while P K Sainaba of CPIM had to be content with a mere 27.43%. The remaining votes were shared between BJP, with 4.4 per cent, Welfare Party at 4.06% and SDPI at 5.29%. In addition to this, United Democratic Front (UDF), of which IUML is an integral part, boasts an enviable history at all the seven assembly segments of the constituency. UDF has been maintaining superiority over its rivals, including the LDF and the BJP, in the seven assembly constituencies- Malappuram, Kondotty, Mankada, Manjeri, Vengara, Vallikkunnu and Perinthalmanna falling into Malappuram Lok Sabha constituency.
The absence of fringe parties like Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), Welfare Party of India and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is a blessing for IUML. The parties decided to keep off the fray following their attempts to field an acceptable candidate in the bypolls. IUML leadership believes that the stand of these parties will be in favour of the party citing strong dissatisfaction among them against LDF government. “CPIM had won a remarkable share of Muslim votes in last Assembly election. But the front failed to rise to the hope of the community,” said a local IUML leader adding that even CPIM cadres will vote for the IUML in a protest against the police’s lackadaisical approach in Riyas and Faisal murder cases, in which BJP and RSS activists were booked.
“This dissent will draw SDPI and Welfare Party towards IUML candidate. Besides, Jama’t e Islami, which owns a direct control over Welfare Party, wants an influential Muslim leader in Parliament,” the local leader said.
SDPI and Welfare Party had won 47,853 and 29,216 votes respectively in 2014 polls.
Both Welfare Party and SDPI leaders say that their decision to opt out of contesting citing the bypolls is irrelevant and added that they will soon declare their stand.
“Our state committee will hold a declaration regarding our stand. There is strong dissent within minorities against LDF. This dissent will reflect in the election,” said SDPI district secretary Musthafa Master.
Welfare Party functionaries said that they were yet to chalk out any plan.
However, Khader said that the stand of these parties was not a deciding factor in the election.
“These parties can hold the decision of their choice. Their stand will neither hurt nor decide our chances,” he said.
The chances of IUML have also been helped by the active participation of Congress for the candidate of its ally.
In the last elections for local self-governing bodies, Congress and IUML had fielded separate candidates in 19 panchayats following disputes at the local level. The scenario was almost same in some constituencies like Tanur and Nilambur, where IUML and Congress candidates lost to LDF independents. But the campaign was attended by prominent leaders like Oommen Chandy and M M Hassan.