By Muhammed Tauqeer
1) Congress allied with TDP which is not only considered outsider but also a troublemaker in Telangana on several issues most important being irrigation related issues on Krishna & Godavari rivers. Moreover TDP hasn’t regained trust of Muslims which was lost after it joining NDA.
2) TRS got early headstart by prematurely dissolving assembly and declaring candidates upfront. Congress was playing catch-up and you don’t win elections by playing catch-up especially when you were dusted in the last election.
3) Absence of strong local leader was another big issue for congress. They were trying to pull Mr. K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), a giant in Telangana, down with the help of dwarf leaders.
4) The overall performance of KCR government was fairly good compared to other states. There were no major issues related to law and order or corruption or farmer distress etc.. that congress could raise. Moreover since Telangana is a newly formed state there is no baseline data to compare other than what was there for United Andhra and obviously small states tend to perform better.
5) Muslims across the state blindly (mind you KCR has been warming up to BJP for quite some time and Muslims are watching it) voted for TRS based on support from Mr. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM (MIM in short) and several Muslim organizations. Muslims are approx 13% of total population in Telangana. It is imperative to note that the difference between vote share of TRS and Mahakutami was approx 14% statewide. Congress realized this little too late and to woo these Muslim voters, appointed Mohammad Azharuddin as working president of the state just one week before the election but to no avail.
In short, the results of Telangana assembly polls were forgone conclusion and declaration on Dec’11 was merely a formality.
Now that the stage is set, lets come back to the topic which is related to the last of the five bullets above. If the election rallies of Congress and BJP stalwarts were followed closely one thing that will clearly stand out is that both were equally tearing into Asaduddin Owaisi more than KCR. What could be the reason?
Asaduddin Owaisi, a three time MP, a London studied barrister, has become voice of minorities in recent years with his exceptional oratory skills, well studied debates and ability to articulate issues with statistics at his finger tips. He is no-nonsense politician who won the Sansad Ratna Award in 2014 and his speeches in parliament are extremely popular. He smartly focuses on issues of importance to minorities and Dalits, establishing himself as well wisher of the communities. Basically his politics revolves around minorities and Dalits mainly. Before he gained fame, it was Samajwadi Party (SP) & Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) who the minorities & Dalits looked up to for raising their issues at national level but after Owaisi taking center stage, SP/BSP have disappeared completely at least for Muslims’ issues. He also has enough share of controversies to his credit but in politics it does not really matter where the fame is coming from as long as it is building up your persona or at least that’s what politicians think.
KCR himself is an astute politician who built his independent identity by resurrecting (some say by hijacking) a dead issue of separate Telangana. Knowing the importance of Muslim voters and their allegiance to Owaisi, KCR has not just maintained friendship with Owaisi but also conceded to their demands on many occasions thus winning goodwill of minorities. He also won hearts by taking pause in speeches when Azan was heard or by donning skullcap. But one may argue, its limited only to customary display, especially when he fielded only 3 Muslim candidates out of 119 that too 2 against its undeclared alliance partner MIM, yes it is the same person who talks about 12% reservation for Muslims in Telangana.
On the other hand he has been warming up to BJP for quite some time though has remained uncommitted. What did he achieve by that? Well he is far more shrewd than anyone might have thought. The BJP supporters know that saffron party has no chance of making any mark in Telangana assembly elections and they would not want their vote to be wasted. So they would go with TRS to defeat Congress with a hope that TRS will support BJP in centre during/after 2019 Parliamentary elections. To win these votes he even avoided formal alliance with MIM.
Some might argue that by showing closeness to BJP, TRS risked its chances of losing Muslim votes but they nullified it by making undeclared alliance with MIM and Owaisi’s open support meant TRS is safely crossing the line. Agree or not, with 13% (or whatever number voted) Muslim population blindly voting TRS on his call, Owaisi has definitely played a kingmaker as he claimed. Had Owaisi not supported KCR, it would have been a different result, at least tough fight with Congress (minus TDP coz its more of a liability) if not a loss. This precisely is the reason why Congress and BJP were targeting Owaisi continuously. Moreover for the saffron party, Owaisi is synonymous with the “bhoot” our parents used to use for intimidating us in the childhood.
Dividend to MIM for supporting TRS:
1) Potential representation in government and different government appointed committees for any of the MLA/s.
2) More bargaining power in terms of funds allocation and development projects which may further strengthen the party’s image and may bear long term fruits.
3) Support for additional Loksabha seat/s beyond Hyderabad constituency.
Political Price MIM may have to pay if things go wrong:
Telangana assembly result is a thing of past now but what is important is what lies in future. Theoretically there are four scenarios for TRS in 2019 Parliamentary elections and with each one of that Muslims will judge MIM more than they would do for TRS.
1) TRS joining hands with Congress (pre or post poll) – This is a low risk low gain scenario for MIM. Except for few hardcore supporters, Muslims will like this and assume TRS and in turn MIM allied with Congress to keep BJP out of power. Moreover MIM will have choice to not support Congress and its supporters won’t be too unhappy about it either.
2) TRS joining hands with BJP with a pre-poll alliance – MIM can oppose TRS’ decision and walk its own path. Muslims won’t vote for TRS candidates and they’ll probably forgive MIM for supporting TRS in Assembly elections since there would be no actual damage done in Parliamentary elections at least.
3) TRS joining hands with BJP with a post-poll alliance – This will mean MIM and Muslim votes actually helped BJP come back to power through backdoor and it would be major setback for Owaisi proving Congress’ argument of calling them BJP’s “B and C” team. Even if they oppose TRS at this stage, regaining Muslim’s trust would be next to impossible and the backlash in next elections is inevitable.
4) KCR forming a federal front or joining third front (pre or post poll) – KCR is less likely to be able to cobble up federal front considering only 4 months time left before election. Even if he is able to, highly unlikely it will go anywhere near forming government but post poll alliance of Federal Front or group of small parties with Congress is a real possibility in case no party gets majority. Either way, it won’t hurt MIM except that few intellectuals may think he supported the vote cutters of Congress. This is exactly what the party seem to be banking on right now.
KCR has zero presence outside Telangana today. His actions will have limited impact for his party but Owaisi on the other hand is a national leader and has a say across states, either he fields his candidates or not. By supporting TRS, he has played a big gamble which may pay off handsome dividends but if backfired would be disastrous and would destroy his credibility completely giving power to other secular/liberal/left parties like SP, BSP, TRS, Congress, Leftists etc. to regain minority votes.
For now, Owaisi seems to be trusting his friend KCR and claiming that TRS won’t support BJP at any cost but the answer lies in future. On the other hand, BJP is looking for new allies with exit of TDP, RLSP, etc. from NDA and it will do everything possible to woo TRS, YSRC, AIADMK to join the coalition. Congress and others who have ambitions of becoming PM, must be silently watching this space. Politics is a game of uncertainties and only time will tell who will pick which piece of the cake.