Sandipan Talukdar, TwoCircles.net
Amidst the highly-discussed elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the by-elections in Assam have quietly raised alarms that – if interpreted correctly – will likely be troubling for the Opposition bloc, particularly the INDIA alliance.
While critical analyses continue to pour in after the defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi or MVA (a coalition of the Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of the Shiv Sena, the Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress) in Maharashtra, especially regarding its poll strategy, candidate selection and seat-sharing, Assam also deserves attention if any meaningful overhaul of the Opposition bloc is to materialise.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies swept the by-elections in five assembly seats, with the most concerning loss being Congress’ defeat in Samaguri. Located in the Nagaon district of central Assam, Samaguri had long been a stronghold of the grand old party, with Rakibul Husain winning the seat for over two decades. As a Muslim-majority constituency, it was unthinkable for anyone to win here without considerable support from the community.
Adding to the Opposition’s woes, the unity of the Assam Opposition alliance, the ASOM (Asom Sonmilito Morcha), which aligned with the national INDIA bloc, crumbled due to internal rifts over candidate selection in Behali, a seat BJP ultimately won. The opposition remains entangled in conflict – with leaders trading accusations. The ASOM now finds itself without Congress, the largest Opposition party in the state.
Violence, Polarisation and BJP’s Success in Samaguri
Looking back at Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s controversial rhetoric around ‘Bangladeshi infiltrators’ and his promotion of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), it is clear that his political narrative has often targeted the Muslim community. His statements regarding East-Bengal-origin Muslims in Assam, made during the Autumn Session of the Assam Assembly, also drew criticism.
However, in Samaguri, BJP candidate Diplu Ranian Sharma secured a notable win with a margin of about 25,000 votes, largely with the backing of Muslims, particularly those of East-Bengal origin. In a recent statement to the media in Guwahati, Sarma asserted that the BJP would increase its support in Muslim-dominated constituencies in the upcoming 2026 Assam assembly elections. He claimed that the BJP does not indulge in “politics of appeasement” and that all communities receive equal benefits from government schemes.
Sarma confidently predicted that the BJP would win more Muslim-majority seats in the next election. This raises the question: why did the BJP receive Muslim support in Samaguri, and could this trend be replicated elsewhere?
The primary reason lies in Congress’ internal struggles and disenchantment with party leadership. Rakibul Husain had been a stalwart in Samaguri, but his son, Tanzil Husain, failed to resonate with the local community. When Rakibul won the Hubri Lok Sabha seat by a record margin of around 10 lakh votes, his son was fielded as the Congress candidate in the Samaguri by-election. This decision created dissatisfaction among local Congress leaders, particularly those from the Muslim community.
Expressing frustration over the party’s decision, one former leader, who recently joined the BJP, said, “We addressed Rakibul’s father as ‘sir’ and then Rakibul. Are we now supposed to call his son ‘sir’ as well?” Rakibul’s father, Nurul Husain, was a two-time Congress MLA from Samaguri (1981 and 1991).
In addition, local dissatisfaction with Rakibul grew. It led to the defection of prominent Muslim leaders from Samaguri Congress. These leaders joined the BJP and its ally, the AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) and actively campaigned for Sharma in Muslim-majority areas. Former allies of Rakibul, such as Farid Ahmed and Fakaruddin, also switched loyalties to the BJP and the AGP.
Moreover, AGP’s established organisational presence in Samaguri played a significant role. AGP’s Atul Sharma had won the seat in 1996, and the party mobilised its grassroots strength and strengthened BJP’s position.
Polarisation also contributed to BJP’s success in Samaguri. Muslim votes alone would not have been enough for Sharma to secure such a large margin. The consolidation of Hindu votes, including Assamese caste Hindus, tribals like Rabha, Bodo and Karbi, as well as tea tribes, was crucial. Historically, Assamese caste Hindus had supported Rakibul, but not this time. During the campaign, it was evident that many voters were disillusioned with the Congress.
The recent delimitation of constituencies also played a role as villages with a large Assamese Hindu and tribal population were moved to the Barhampur constituency. They voted in Samaguri for the by-election, yet they were disappointed with Congress’ failure to address their concerns. This fuelled anti-dynasty sentiments and further eroded support for Rakibul Husain.
Samaguri’s by-election was also marred by unprecedented violence. One person was killed in the clashes, a rare occurrence in Assam’s elections. Both the Congress and the BJP blamed each other for the violence, though an impartial investigation is necessary to determine the full extent of responsibility. However, it is clear that both parties were involved in the turmoil.
Disarray in Opposition
The candidate selection process for the Behali seat highlighted the Opposition’s internal discord. The Congress and the CPI(ML), both part of the INDIA bloc, fielded their candidates. This left the Opposition divided, and with both parties fought for second place while the BJP advanced toward victory.
The conflict over candidate selection created chaos. CPI(ML) had been expecting the Congress state president Bhupen Borah’s approval, but Gaurav Gogoi instead backed Jayanta Borah as the candidate. Ahead of the declaration, a five-member committee was formed with representatives from all ASOM parties, excluding the Congress and the CPI(ML). The committee unanimously chose CPI(ML)’s Bibek Das as the joint candidate.
However, the agreement quickly unraveled when the Congress unexpectedly proposed that they would support the CPI(ML) if the candidate was changed. The CPI(ML) hesitated but eventually agreed to support Lakhikanta Kurmi as the candidate. Despite this, the Congress declared its own candidate at the last moment. It further fragmented the alliance. ASOM’s unity collapsed. Bhupen Borah resigned as president, and Rajya Sabha MP Ajit Bhuyan was elected as the new president. It left the Congress out of the Opposition bloc.
Despite these internal issues, Congress candidate Jayanta Borah put up a strong fight and reduced the BJP’s victory margin to just 9,000 votes. In previous elections, the BJP had won the seat by over 23,000 votes. Even the CPI(ML)’s joint candidate in 2021 had managed only about 21,000 votes.
While the Congress succeeded in reducing the margin in Behali, it could not prevent the BJP from claiming victory. More importantly, the fragmentation of the Opposition was glaringly evident. Had the Congress addressed its leadership conflict earlier, the Opposition could have presented a more united front. Instead, internal discord became public and it further weakened their position.
Even after the election, the Opposition remains mired in infighting. The Congress bore the brunt of the blame.
The Opposition’s Long Road Ahead
The Assam by-elections have exposed the Opposition’s vulnerability, particularly in terms of internal cohesion and grassroots support. The breakdown of the ASOM and the Congress’ internal leadership struggles suggest that the Opposition has a long way to go before it can effectively challenge the BJP in Assam.
With the BJP broadening its appeal across communities, the Opposition must urgently address its organisational failures and internal divisions if it hopes to mount a serious challenge in future elections.