Islamabad, Sep 13 (IANS) Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is being extremely cagey about who will succeed him as army chief – and while loyalty is a key factor, he could still spring a surprise, a media report Thursday said.
Musharraf, who is expected to shed his uniform by Nov 15, “is keeping his cards close to his chest and hardly anyone amongst the top military commanders has any idea as to who would be promoted to four-star general and appointed as vice chief of army staff (VCOAS) and as the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC)”, The News reported.
The next VCOAS will become the army chief when Musharraf sheds his uniform.
The incumbent VCOAS, Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hayat, and the CJCSC, Gen. Ehsanul Haq, are retiring on Oct 8. Musharraf is expected to announce their successors before that date.
Quoting sources, the newspaper said three factors – seniority, competence and loyalty – are “generally considered” for promotion to the two posts.
Seniority is important for the officer’s acceptability to other senior ranks of the army.
“Competence is always important but in the present situation it is all the more vital because of the serious challenges that the new army chief has to confront,” The News said.
The challenges are to restore the image of the army and redeem its respect among the civilians, as the new army chief will have to show and prove to the people that he is a true professional.
Then, the “more crucial challenge” would be US pressure, its war on terror and the ongoing operations in the tribal areas and particularly in Waziristan.
“Only through his competence and professionalism, the (new) chief would keep a balance between the US pressure and the local sensitivities involved. He will have to clear the general perception that our army is fighting America’s war,” The newspaper noted.
Loyalty is the third, “but in the present situation would possibly be the major factor” in the appointment of the VCOAS.
“Musharraf would definitely want that the future army chief should be his most trusted man. Musharraf would also expect the army to come to his aid when he needs it and that there should be an army chief on whom he can count,” The News said.
Thus, it maintained, “strong-headed” lieutenant generals have “little chance to dream” of the key post.
Citing background interviews, the newspaper said amongst the three star generals, two “are generally known in the military circles as the most trusted” by Musharraf.
These are Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (DG-ISI) Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, and Chief of General Staff (CGS) Lt. Gen. Salahuddin Satti. Even so, there is no surety that one of them would make VCOAS.
“Satti, though a competent professional and a respected officer, having varied experience, has the greatest disadvantage of being too low in the seniority list of lieutenant generals,” the newspaper said.
But then, it was Satti’s troops from the 111 Brigade that conducted the October 12, 1999 military coup that ousted then prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
However, to promote Satti to four-star general would mean superseding at least 12 lieutenant generals, something that has never happened in the history of the Pakistani Army.
As for Kiyani, he is generally considered a “competent, sharp and mature professional”, who has always been respected in military circles.
His recent involvement in the aborted deal-dialogue with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto “is the only negative thing attached to his otherwise excellent career.
“Although never in the past has any ISI chief made it to the top-most military post, Kiyani is the most secure bet for his promotion as a four-star general. However, still no one is sure if the ISI chief would get the post of VCOAS,” The News said, an indication he could be made the head of the chiefs of staff committee.
Thus, incumbent VCOAS Hayat “could also be allowed to continue for being a trusted and time-tested man”, the newspaper maintained.