Mushtaque Rahamat
It is indeed perplexing how swiftly Syria’s Assad regime collapsed, forcing the dictator to flee. Understanding and unpacking the incident and its implications for regional and global politics will take time.
From the information I could gather (no small feat in an age rife with misinformation and whataboutism), the United States and its allies leveraged a Sunni alliance. It armed and united rebel factions opposed to Bashar al-Assad. This coalition, which can be likened to ISIS 2.0, was supported by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. These nations, despite their conflicting interests, played a significant role in toppling Assad, while the U.S. and its allies provided strategic backing.
The Gulf monarchies, which are mostly Sunni, and Türkiye sought to counter Shia Iran’s growing influence and military prominence, which had portrayed itself as the defender of the faith. Overthrowing the Alawite rulers in Syria temporarily unified a fragmented Sunni bloc, revitalising their image of power and accomplishment. This was a crucial step for Gulf nations and Türkiye to project strength and assert their positions as powerhouses in the Muslim world.
Western Strategy and Its Regional Effects
For Western allies, particularly the U.S., this situation presented an opportunity to diminish Russia’s regional influence, sever Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah and weaken its grip over Iraq and Lebanon. With Iran unable to support its proxies, the West aimed to neutralise groups aligned with Tehran.
Türkiye, meanwhile, harboured dreams of reclaiming its Ottoman legacy as a leader in the Muslim world. The immediate benefit for Türkiye was curbing Kurdish separatist movements and boosting President Erdogan’s prestige among Sunnis, a much-needed reprieve given domestic criticism of his policies, especially regarding Turkish-Israeli relations. A symbolic gesture, such as Erdogan leading prayers in Homs, could bolster his image as a caliph-like figure.
Challenges for Türkiye
However, Türkiye, under Erdogan’s leadership, has struggled to reconcile its historical ambitions with its modern role as a secular nation-state. While Erdogan employs various tactics to retain power, his vision of melding Islamic principles with a modern nation-state remains contentious. Once Iran and Sunni insurgents are weakened, Türkiye may face challenges from its Western collaborators.
The Gulf monarchies, in particular, oppose any model of governance with a popular mandate, fearing it could threaten their dynastic rule. This resistance is evident in their actions in Egypt, Sudan and Pakistan.
Iran’s Calculated Moves, Regional Dynamics
Iran’s strategic actions, including its unwavering support for Palestine and military responses to Israeli aggression, have significantly shifted the regional balance of power. Unlike other Middle Eastern nations, which have historically refrained from direct military retaliation against Israel, Iran has positioned itself as a formidable military power in the region. This not only challenges Israel’s dominance but also instils apprehension among Gulf monarchies, whose defence relies heavily on the U.S. support.
Iran’s assertive stance has earned it widespread respect across the Muslim world, enhancing its influence both militarily and politically. However, this emerging dynamic is intolerable to Gulf monarchies, which view Iran’s rise as a direct threat to their authority and regional interests. Consequently, these monarchies are determined to weaken Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and allied groups in Iraq and Yemen.
Ironically, this agenda aligns with the objectives of Western powers, particularly the U.S., which prioritise maintaining Israel’s regional dominance — often at the expense of Palestinian aspirations. This confluence of interests underscores the complex and often contradictory alliances shaping the Middle East.
Russia, Iran, and the West’s Next Steps
As Russia’s role in the Middle East diminishes, the focus will likely shift to Iran. One can expect attempts to destabilise Iran through Kurdish or Sunni/Shia factions, drying up its regional support. The goal is to isolate Iran, potentially leading to a regime change akin to Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak. With the Trump administration’s return, there could be increased European pressure on Iran, reflecting broader NATO interests.
The U.S. might also aim to involve China in a conflict, as military engagement is one arena China has avoided. With Russia mired in Ukraine, this strategy would further consolidate Western dominance. However, the Western alliance’s treatment of Ukraine highlights that it is merely a pawn in this broader power struggle.
Israel: The Ultimate Beneficiary
Among all actors, Israel emerges as the least affected and most opportunistic. The chaos in Syria has allowed it to expand its territory, divert attention from Gaza and deepen divisions between Sunni and Shia factions. Israel benefits from a weakened Türkiye and Iran, a fragmented Syria and Lebanon, and Gulf states aligning with its objectives.
While I do not support Bashar al-Assad or any form of dictatorship, the unfolding events in Syria highlight the intricate web of power struggles, betrayals and ambitions shaping the region’s future. Each actor is playing a dangerous game with no regard for the suffering of ordinary people — an ominous harbinger of tumultuous times ahead.
(The views expressed are personal)