Though the Aam Admi Party is passing through pangs of becoming a ruling party in Delhi it is, at least on one count, in more advantageous position than the Bharatiya Janata Party. Like the Congress it has the potential to emerge as a pan-India party.
While the Congress has grown weak nationally the biggest limitation of the BJP is that it can hardly become an all-India party. Even during the high time of Ram Janambhoomi Movement it failed to break out of the Hindi heartland of India. About 250 out of 543 parliamentary constituencies remain totally out of its bound.
Notwithstanding the tall claims of Moditva wave the party is yet to register its presence in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Assam and other smaller north-eastern states. If the BJP comes to power it will have to rely heavily on the regional allies and the party may have to once again make major political concessions as it did during the Vajpayee rule between 1998 and 2004.
Though it would be too early to say anything about the Aam Admi Party, as it is at present a conglomeration of various social activists, NGOs, academics, former bureaucrats and technocrats, journalists, politicians linked formerly to different parties, etc yet it has the capability to challenge the Congress party in all the parliamentary constituencies of the country. Time may be running out for the party for the coming Lok Sabha election, but it can certainly spread its tentacles in the years to come.
While there may be no scope for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley or Christian-dominated Mizoram or Nagaland the Aam Admi Party can certainly hope to emerge as a force to reckon with in all these places in the years to come––provided its leaders capitalize on the prevailing mood of the people in the proper way.
Another significant plus point with the Aam Admi Party is that it is demolishing the caste and community barriers. Its expansion may hit the Congress party hard, but the truth is that its emergence has come as a big blow to the BJP, whose failure as the main opposition party helped AAP come to power in Delhi. This may happen elsewhere too. If many young voters have till now been rooting for Narendra Modi it was not necessarily out of love for him, but because they have no alternative to weak Manmohan Singh. The AAP has provided that choice to them.
While realization has dawned upon many Congressmen and they have started making up their mind to sit in the opposition after the May 2014 election the BJP leaders are a bit panicky. If AAP really walks away with a few seats, as many experts predict, the result may seal the prospect of Narendra Modi.
Though the AAP is not playing the caste politics, it needs to be pointed out that after Mahatma Gandhi and Ram Manohar Lohia the Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is the first big personality to emerge from the trading community, which has the natural proclivity towards the BJP. In that way, notwithstanding his party’s stand against FDI in New Delhi he may be acceptable especially to the small traders. That is why the saffron party is a bit alarmed even in its stronghold of Gujarat.
As AAP can provide alternative in the states too it also has the potential to contest the hegemony of the dynastic rule––not just of the Congress––and regional satraps. In states like Tamil Nadu, where the Congress ceases to remain as any force and BJP finds no scope whatsoever the AAP can make inroads. After all dynasties have their life and the AAP can surely fill the vacuum, provided it overcomes the early days blues.