By Tariq Hasan
There is no doubt that by changing tracks overnight, Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar has proved that he is the ultimate master survivor in Indian politics. Undeniably he has played a trump card by switching political loyalties across the entire spectrum of political ideology or whatever remains in Indian democracy. But the million Dollar question is, whether this ostensibly smart political move brings him long or even medium term gains or will this end up as his ‘last hurrah’.
This writer is of the opinion that within a short span of few months, it will be strikingly clear to Mr. Nitish Kumar, who had been during the past few months, spouting venom on the RSS that the Modi-led government at the Centre is as different from the Vajpayee-led NDA government as chalk is from cheese. In the weeks ahead Mr. Nitish Kumar’s stinging remarks of a “RSS Mukt India” will haunt him for the rest of his political life.
All this is a clear pointer to the extreme likely hood of the possibility that while Mr. Nitish would be allowed to continue as Chief Minister of Bihar for a few more years but he faces the daunting proposition of being a ‘lame duck’ chief minister for the rest of his tenure. He can still survive but from now onwards his entire political career would be under the shade of a saffron colour banyan tree.
In his heart, Mr. Nitish Kumar and his handful of comrades would shortly realise that they have lost the trust forever of all marginalized sections in the Bihar electorate. Mr. Nitish was a politician of ideas who always succeeded in creating a hype revolving around his voice of conscience. It has paid him this image as paid him well during the past couple of decades. But he has ever been a politician with a mass political base of his own. It is this weakness in his armour which is going to be exploited by his new political masters. When his utility in Bihar politics is on the vane, he is likely to be thrown away like an empty egg shell.
Mr. Nitish Kumar is trying his best to sell his image as a “politician with a conscience”. But his detractors are losing no time in pointing out that Mr. Kumar’s “voice of conscience” suffers from a selective amnesia. It is no secret that some of his new-found colleagues in the NDA’s pantheon of chief ministers have their own track record of corrupt and criminal records. Once the NDA government’s skeletons start tumbling out of the cupboard, Mr. Nitish will find it exceedingly difficult to call upon his “voice of conscience”.
But what should be the real concern today to all those who value and treasure Indian democracy is not the fate of Mr. Nitish Kumar, but the wider fall out of Bihar in the immediate context of Indian politics.
A few weeks before Mr. Kumar’s switch over to the NDA, he made a very significant remark regarding the need of the opposition to come up with an alternative narrative if it wishes to counter the growing clout of the NDA government at the centre. It has to be admitted that this comment of Mr. Kumar cannot be ignored by the Congress-led opposition. While Mr. Kumar may apparently have his own motives behind this telling observation, the fact remains that his observation of a Congress-led opposition is a brutally true one.
It would be naïve and untruthful for any political observer to entirely blame Mr. Nitish Kumar for what happened in Bihar this week. Mr. Lalu Prasad Yadav, and above all, the Congress Party and its poll strategists will also have to share a huge ocean of the responsibility for failing to read the writing on the wall regarding Bihar politics during the past six months or so.
To be precise, Mr. Nitish Kumar’s exit from the grand alliance of opposition parties is unquestionably the last chance for the protagonists of an opposition grand alliance to change course drastically. For the Congress Party and, in particular Mr. Rahul Gandhi, it is the final call – respond or perish.
It is starkly clear that if there is any chance for the Congress-led opposition to pose any serious challenge to the Modi-led NDA government in the 2019. The situation calls for a drastic review of their entire political strategy. Mr. Rahul Gandhi’s politics of two steps ahead and then three steps backward, if allowed to three-four months, will, in all probability, will seal his political future at least for the next few decades.
In politics, it is said that one week is a long time. Despite the dark clouds hovering over the Congress party and the entire opposition in the country, the situation is still far from lost. You travel to the backwards of India’s countryside and small towns and you are bound to see the stirrings and murmurs of a very deep running disenchantment with the Modi-led government. Be it the small time farmers, petty artisans, cottage industry owners, marginalized castes and petty traders, the chickens are coming home to the roost as an after effect of the demonetization, GST and growing lawlessness is breeding frustration in the minds of all the ‘non-bhakts’ in the countryside.
In his parting broadsides to the Congress leadership, Mr. Nitish Kumar has left behind a magic mantra for the opposition.
Stop the negative politics of focusing totally upon attacking the Modi-led government and instead create a viable counter-narrative which appeals in a positive sense to the masses of India. The dividends will be rich.