By Prasun Sonwalkar, IANS
London : The legion of South Asia experts in Britain are united against the emergency declared in Pakistan on Nov 3, but worried about the way ahead because they cannot predict which way Benazir Bhutto will turn.
Vernon Hewitt, an expert on South Asian politics at the University of Bristol, said that Bhutto did not inspire much confidence in the present situation. However, the opposition in Pakistan may temporarily unite until President Pervez Musharraf is gone, he added.
“The Musharraf regime is definitely at the terminal stage. Even if he becomes a civilian president, the army will not back him. The army will broker a deal with the opposition. The situation today reminds me of 1987-88 before General Zia-ul-Haq was assassinated,” he said.
Hewitt added that the emergency had come at an unfortunate time for the ongoing composite dialogue with India and hoped that the dialogue would continue. He noted that India had been “calm, hands-off” in commenting on the situation in Pakistan.
Katherine Adeney, an expert on South Asian politics at the University of Sheffield, told IANS: “Until recently, the power sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf looked likely to go ahead, despite her protestations to the contrary.
“But recent developments, in which she has called for Musharraf’s removal as president as well as army chief have called this into question. Benazir is understandably worried about being tarnished by too close an association with Musharraf especially after the declaration of the state of emergency and the brutal treatment of many activists.
“However, her (recent) statements against Musharraf must still be taken with a large pinch of salt — it is not possible to definitely write off a power-sharing deal between the two”.
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, senior fellow for South Asia at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, termed the situation in Pakistan as “mind-boggling and very worrying” with implications for regional and global security. It will be impossible to hold elections under emergency since they were contradictory terms, he said.
“There are several issues involved: combating terrorism, countering religious extremism, future of democratic traditions, the shape of Pakistan’s economy and Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.
“The key issue is stability that is required for regional and global security. Pakistan is part of the problem and also part of the solution. Without Pakistan’s support, dealing with Afghanistan and terrorism is difficult. The situation is in a flux.”
Roy-Chaudhury also pointed out that the “unprecedented” composite dialogue between India and Pakistan had taken off, and had gone off well so far. But in recent months, the focus in Islamabad, he said, was more on its border with Afghanistan than on Jammu and Kashmir.
Several experts, academics and people with origins in the Indian sub-continent have been monitoring developments in Pakistan on an almost hourly basis since the declaration of emergency.
In universities and think tanks, experts have been holding regular sessions on developments in Pakistan. Among these is the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, which holds regular briefings with diplomats from various countries, including Pakistan.
Many people with links to or interest in developments in Pakistan turned up at a demonstration outside the Pakistan high commission Sunday to demand the release of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. Writer Tariq Ali and the controversial Respect Party MP, George Galloway — who was once honoured with a civilian award by the Pakistan government — addressed the gathering.
Tariq Ali said: “This latest martial law that has been imposed, what is the reason for it? The impression given by the government and in Musharraf’s pathetic, incoherent broadcasts is that we had to do this because we are fighting terrorism. But is Imran Khan a terrorist? The terrorists are people who thrive on martial law.”