By Ronald Baygents, KUNA,
Washington : Voters go to the polls on Tuesday to make their choice of candidate in what most analysts agree is the most important US presidential election in at least 40 years.
With the US economy in the worst shape since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the country engaged in two wars, Americans will choose between two men with powerful but strikingly different life stories, as well as significant differences in social and political philosophies, and their views of how best to deal with the rest of the world.
Most US political pundits have virtually written off Republican presidential nominee John McCain, as polls show Democratic nominee Barack Obama ahead both nationally and in key battleground states where the election will be decided. But some say it is premature to count McCain out.
McCain was written off in the summer of 2007, when his poll numbers plunged in the wake of the unpopular Iraq war, which he supported. But with his support of the White House-backed US troop surge in Iraq, the Arizona senator staged a remarkable comeback, and in the end, prevailed over a crowded field of contenders to claim his party’s nomination in the quest to succeed fellow Republican President George W. Bush.
Some polls show McCain tightening his contest with Obama in such key swing states as Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where the election will ultimately be decided.
But Obama remained ahead in most polls, even if his margin had shrunk. And, perhaps most significantly, Obama expanded the political playing field by successfully pulling well ahead in formerly reliable Republican states in the West – Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada – making it tough for McCain to win even if the Arizona senator succeeds in keeping the contest close.
US history is not on McCain’s side. The last time a US presidential candidate who was far down in the polls late in the campaign managed to pull out a shocking victory was 1948, when incumbent Democratic President Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey. But in that election, Truman was not as far behind in as many states as polls show McCain has been in the closing weeks of an election effort that began nearly two years ago.
Another daunting challenge for McCain is that Americans throughout US history have consistently voted against the incumbent political party in a presidential election in which the prevailing issue is a failing US economy. That fact is the central reason polls show Obama with double-digit leads in many states hard hit by the Wall Street meltdown, rising US jobless numbers, and a mortgage crisis that has many Americans in real danger of losing their homes.
And that is not the end of McCain’s political problems; his decision to select Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, while widely credited with giving him a big boost in the polls last August at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, backfired on him. As voters learned more about Palin, with polls showing a majority believing she is unqualified to be president should the 72-year-old McCain pass away while in office, many Republican insiders have concluded she was a drag on the ticket, helping pull McCain down in the long run.
Then there are the intangibles, which will only be clarified after the election. One is the enthusiasm factor. Polls have consistently shown that Democrats this year are more excited about their ticket — Obama and his vice presidential selection, veteran US Senator Joe Biden — and more motivated to not only vote but get others to vote, than are the Republicans.
One reason for that is that Obama, a 47-year-old freshman Illinois senator who aims to become the first African-American US president, has run a virtually flawless campaign that utilized the Internet, text messaging, and other high-tech tools to register hundreds of thousands of first-time young voters.
However, the US youth vote has been notorious for not turning out in as great numbers as senior citizens and middle-age voters do. If that shift changes dramatically in 2008, Obama will likely be unstoppable. And while it remains to be seen who will benefit from a high voter turnout, this has been a record year for early voting, with long lines in Florida and Ohio, among other states that permit early balloting.
All in all, voter interest in this election appears to be at an all-time high.
But there is one issue that gives pause to those who might be tempted to see the basketball-playing Obama as poised for a slam-dunk victory: Race.
Significant numbers of Americans have a history of telling pollsters that they have no problem voting for a black candidate, then, when alone in the polling station, voting for the white candidate.
This phenomenon is known as the “Bradley effect,” because in 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was well ahead in the polls against a white Republican opponent in the California governor’s race. Bradley ended up losing by 2 percentage points. And there are several other examples where black candidates won — a New York mayor and a Virginia governor — but their margin of victory was only 1 or 2 points, even though polls showed them ahead by 9 points or more prior to the elections.
Many analysts believe the “Bradley effect” is dated, and that far fewer Americans are concerned about race in 2008, especially during tough economic times. But questions about this topic will not be settled until after the election.
Beyond the issues are the candidates themselves, who are worlds apart culturally and philosophically.
Barack Hussein Obama was named after his Kenyan father, Barack Obama Sr. His mother, Ann Dunham, was a Kansas-born American. Obama’s parents met while attending the University of Hawaii at Manoa, where his father was enrolled as a foreign student.
Barack was born in Hawaii. His parents separated when he was 2 years old and later divorced. His father went on to Harvard University to pursue Ph.D. studies, then returned to Kenya, where he died in an auto accident in 1982. Obama’s mother married another foreign student, Lolo Soetoro, and the family moved to Soetoro’s home country of Indonesia in 1967. Obama attended local non-religious schools from ages 6 to 10. He then returned to Honolulu, Hawaii, to live with his maternal grandparents, Madelyn and Stanley Dunham, while attending private school from the fifth grade until his graduation in 1979.
Obama went on to become the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, then settled in South Chicago, where he worked as a community organizer, and met his future wife, Michelle. They have two young daughters.
John Sidney McCain III is the son and grandson of distinguished US Navy admirals. He attended college at the US Naval Academy, and launched a 22-year career as a naval aviator upon his graduation. The most well-known part of his life story centers on his being shot down in 1967 while on a bombing mission over Hanoi during the Vietnam War, then being held as a prisoner of war for more than five years.
McCain retired from the Navy in 1981, and was subsequently elected US senator from Arizona, a position he has held for 26 years.
McCain has a total of seven children from two wives, and four grandchildren. He and his wife, Cindy, have seven homes, but their primary residence is listed as Phoenix.
Philosophically, McCain is considered a conservative, although he has earned the label of “maverick” because he has a history of bucking his own Republican Party on key issues, including illegal immigration, taxes, campaign finance reform, and torture of US-held terrorism suspects.