Ref:- Federation of SAARC countries with dyarchy, inevitable
Dear Sir
This time the sudden spurt of the stories, articles & discussions during last week in Indian print and electronic media (by journalists, politicians, retired Army Generals & bureaucrats etc) over likelihood of dyarchy (joint martial and civil rule with primacy of armed forces over politics) getting formally entrenched in Pakistan is not due to traditional concern of India in relation to the problems of Kashmir & terrorism (which are feared to exacerbate in political disturbed situation in Pakistan) but it goes much deeper as it, as given below, threatens the full democratic (Republic) system in India itself:-
(1)- Not withstanding hullabaloo over ideologies, only those political parties thrive in India which has charismatic leader in the sense that who can bring the party in power. Whether it is Sonia, Mulayam, Mayawati, Laloo, Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi, Chandrababu Naidu, Naveen Patnaik etc. Even CPM, a so called ideology based communist party, thrived only during tenure of Jyoti Basu in West Bengal and is now facing deep problems over Nandigram etc during current regime of Budhdev.
(2)- Deeply caste ridden Hindu majority India (which institutionalised caste system, despite secular claims of India, through reservations to only various castes of Hindu order) has only two political parties which have upper caste approval. One Congress and other BJP. But both these parties are without any leader who can project himself / herself as a future Prime Ministerial candidate (a sine-qua-non for a charismatic leader at centre).
(3)- During coming Parliamentary elections within an year or so, the present de-facto ruler of India, Sonia Gandhi of Congress (who only has or likely to have in near future the capacity to attract votes for Congress) will simply not dare to project herself as PM candidate for the reasons (of foreign origin) which dictated her earlier decision to relinquish rather escape the office of PM.
(4)- As far BJP its only charismatic leader Vajpayee thoroughly discredited himself when during his PMship thousands of innocent Muslims were massacred in State sponsored pogrom of 2002 in Gujrat which costed him power. Also due to his advanced age Vajpayee is simply out this race of PMship. Otherwise also BJP (who’s ascendancy is mainly due to Ram Temple, at Babri Masjid site, movement) after giving up hard Hindutva agenda hardly has any chance of coming back to power at centre.
(5)- Of course other regional parties led by Mayawati, Karunanidhi, Laloo, Mulayam etc. have potential of reaching Delhi and forming coalition Government at center but they are all political parties mainly of so called lowly backward castes , dalits (schedule caste and schedule tribes) therefore upper caste Hindus (who control all the economical, financial, religious institutions of India) will never accept it and may even throw also the baby with water.
(6)- India of its own can not usher into dyarchy also. Not because India has any liking for full democracy (republic) but mainly due the fact that India lost its martial traditions long back as is evident also from:-
(i)- India’s martial forces never raised guns against Britishers and kept on drawing salaries happily all along India’s independence struggle, with the result mother India got partitioned.
(ii)- India, failed rather never tried seriously to retrieve its territory of Pakistan side Kashmir (contrast it with Pakistan who kept on trying military solution to retrieve allegedly its territory of Indian side of J&K in 1947, 1965, 1971, Kargil conflict etc and God knows, it may still be trying).
(iii)- Regarding 1962 China war, the less talked the better.
(iv)- In 1971, Bangladesh was not sought to be merged with India again though its existence became legally and politically untenable due to collapse of two nation theory which was the cause of partition of India.
(v)- India in Sri Lanka (its immediate neighbor and coreligionist) went militarily and lost its honor and ex- Prime Minister without bringing Sri Lanka with India (in federation) and thus leaving Sri Lanka a free for all for international community from far and wide to fish in Sri Lanka’s troubled waters.
(vi)- Nepal having open border with India has been left to face its armed uprising related problems though it could have been solved easily by recommending to / helping Nepal to usher in dyarchy / by coming with India in a federation.
(7)- On the contrary it has now become as clear as day light that in Pakistan, its armed forces are in full command and control and if there still seems to be any semblance of disturbance or instability in Pakistan then it is mainly due to the failure of Musharraf who is still not prepared (for the reasons best known to him only) to declare that Pakistan will have dyarchy, the joint martial and civilian rule (even after January 2008 elections), where martial President (supported mainly by armed forces) will take care of martial (war) affairs, security of the country, foreign affairs, human rights and assent to legislation of Pakistan. Whereas elected civilian Prime Minister, Chief Ministers etc will take care of all the civil matters of Pakistan.
(8)- In a nut shell, there is a political vacuum in India and not in Pakistan.
(9)- Here comes the main problem of India. The present resounding success of dyarchy in Pakistan (an ally of USA etc. in their post 9/11 war against terrorism and a nuclear power) and political vacuum in India along with already on-going serious political problems in other SAARC countries (including Mynmar and observer country Afghanistan) will constrain international community to recommend Federation of SAARC countries with dyarchy as a system of governance.
(10)- International community can not have any objection to the removal of full democracy (republic) from any country for the simple reason that an important country of this region, China, the permanent member of UN, what to talk of full democracy (republic) it does not have even democracy under dyarchy.
(11)- Otherwise also it will not be long before USA (and its allies) realise that it is much simpler to deal with Asian countries having dyarchy and (especially with mechanism for enforcement of human rights through UNHCHR) and which may be a model for the solution to its problems in Iraq also.
Yours truly
Hem Raj Jain
208, Supriya, Plot # 20, Sector – 10, Dwarka
New Delhi – 110075, INDIA
Ph: +91 11 32940177 Mob: 09871194983