By V.S. Karnic, IANS
Bangalore : Congress president Sonia Gandhi has a difficult task on hand in deciding whether to form a government with Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) in Karnataka, as both her party and the JD-S are a divided lot on the issue.
She also has to be an astute mind reader to decipher what JD-S president and former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda is up to. This is something many Indian politicians have tried to do in the past, and failed.
Deve Gowda’s public position at the moment is that he is opposed to joining hands with the Congress again and would rather have an early poll to the Karnataka assembly.
The JD-S strength in the 225-member assembly is now down to 51, as seven have been suspended for aligning with Siddaramiah who rebelled against the hold of the Deve Gowda family over the party. Siddaramiah, who was deputy chief minister in the earlier Congress-JD-S coalition ministry, has joined the Congress.
A majority of the 51 JD-S legislators are against an early poll as they fear that the refusal by Deve Gowda’s son and former chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy to keep his promise and transfer power to the BJP as agreed 20 months ago has turned the voters against the party.
Following the pressure by these JD-S legislators, senior party leader M.P. Prakash, home minister in the Kumaraswamy ministry, has taken the lead in trying to form an alternative government with the Congress.
On Tuesday he met Congress leaders in New Delhi and claims to have received a positive response from them.
But on Thursday Deve Gowda hurriedly called a press meet to announce an end to the efforts and declared that the party was readying itself for early polls.
Prakash, however, has not given up and will be in New Delhi from Friday evening to continue his efforts. He may meet Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patel this time.
During his last visit he met union home minister Shivraj Patil, Congress general secretary and Karnataka in-charge Prithviraj Chavan and party treasurer Motilal Vora.
Though Prakash said that JD-S has to wait for Sonia Gandhi’s return from China Oct 29 for a clear picture to emerge, Deve Gowda went ahead announcing an end to the efforts.
While reacting to all this, Sonia Gandhi will no doubt keep in mind that Kumaraswamy was instrumental in bringing down the Congresss-JD-S coalition ministry only 20 months back. He walked out with 49 of the 58 JD-S legislators in February 2006 to forge an alliance with the BJP, accusing the Congress of attempts to destroy his party.
Now Sonia Gandhi has to decide whether Deve Gowda is only indulging in public posturing while waiting for her green signal.
Or is Deve Gowda desperate to scuttle Prakash’s efforts fearing he will become marginalized in Karnataka politics as well? The man who was prime minister for 11 months in 1996-97 is now a non-entity in national politics.
His isolation at the national level became near complete when he supported his son Kumaraswamy’s alliance with the BJP a few months after calling the day the JD-S-BJP coalition took power “the saddest day of my life”.
The assessment Sonia Gandhi will receive from her state leaders is unlikely to be of any great help to her in figuring out the games Deve Gowda is playing or will start playing if and when she gives her nod to form the government.
The state Congress is sharply divided with one section supporting Prakash’s efforts and another deeply suspicious that these moves have Deve Gowda’s tacit approval.
There was widespread belief even in February 2006 that Kumaraswamy would not have gone ahead to make an alliance with the BJP without his father’s approval, despite the former prime minister’s public pronouncements, and that the son does nothing without the father’s approval.
The JD-S-BJP coalition collapsed because of Deve Gowda’s opposition to transfer power to the BJP though Kumaraswamy appeared keen to do so on Oct 3 to save his image in the public eye. As a result of Kumaraswamy’s refusal, the BJP pulled out of the coalition forcing him to quit, the assembly has been under suspended animation and the state under president’s rule since Oct 9.
Now there is no way of predicting what Deve Gowda will do if a Congress-JD-S coalition government assumes power.
Sonia Gandhi has to decide how to tackle Deve Gowda if he takes centre-stage after a Congress-JD-S coalition takes over. It will be an unenviable task for her, even with a battery of veterans in power play available to advise her.