TwoCircles.net forecasts Muslims winning two seats and a decent chance on one more seat. Read full analysis by Kashif-ul-Huda of TwoCircles.net
Chhattisgarh goes to poll in two phases on 14th and 20th of this month. This is only the second election since Chhattisgarh become a state in 2000. According to the 2001 census, only 2% of the population of the state is Muslim. In the last Assembly, out of 91 state legislators only one was a Muslim- Mohammad Akbar represented Virendranagar.
This year there are three strong Muslim candidates in the fray and at least two of them should be able to win their seats. After Gujarat and Karnataka, Chhattisgarh is another state where BJP has not been able to find any Muslim candidate. The Congress party has fielded two Muslims. Sitting MLA Mohammad Akbar because of delimitation exercise has got a new constituency; therefore he is contesting from Pandariya.
Pandariya is a safe seat for the Congress party. Since 1980, it has lost only one of the six Assembly elections here. Congress candidates have been able to win it comfortably the last three elections even with strong performance by Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Communist Party of India (CPI). Mohammad Akbar whose name on this year’s ballot is Akbar Bhai has a pretty good chance of winning this seat.
Badruddin Quraishi, another Congress candidate is contesting from Bhilai Nagar seat. Quraishi lead in Bhilai Nagar area in last year’s mayoral elections which he lost with a narrow margin. Bhilai Nagar is a strong BJP seat but Congress candidates have been able to win it two out of last three elections. Last election was won by the BJP by a huge margin in which BSP, CPI, and NCP each got 3-5% of the polled votes. NCP is not contesting this year but BSP and CPI are contesting. Quraishi’s strong performance in Bhilai Nagar Assembly area in the mayoral elections gives a good indication that he will not have too much difficulty winning this seat.
Chhattisgarh Assembly house
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded two Muslims out of 82 seats that it is contesting. Yunus Ali also known as Shakeel Bhai is contesting Bilaspur seat and Sadiq Ali is for Raipur City North Assembly seat.
Bilaspur is a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. BJP won this seat in 1990, 1998, and 2003. Congress has managed to increase its vote share since its humiliating defeat in 1998. BSP has never polled more than 2% of the votes here. Yunus Ali does not have a chance to win this seat.
Since 1990, Raipur City North has seen triangular contest between INC, BJP, and BSP. Except in 1998, BSP was able to come second otherwise they always come close third. Last election was pretty close with congress winning by polling 34% of the votes. BJP came second with 26% and BSP was third with 23%. Congress candidate for 2003 was Dr. Hari Das Bhardawaj who won the same seat on BJP ticket in 1998.
A candidate of NCP was able to win 11% of votes in 2003. Both SP and BSP have fielded Muslim candidate this year. BSP candidate Advocate Sadiq Ali has a fighting chance of winning this seat. This seat also features another Muslim- Anwar Hussain of Samajwadi Party (SP) is a candidate for this seat. He doesn’t have a chance but could spoil it for Sadiq Ali.
Other SP candidates in this election are Haider Bhati who is contesting from Dharsiwa and Patna and Moin Ashraf Khan of Raipur City South. In addition there are some Muslim candidates participating in the democratic process as independents.
Chhattisgarh region has no history of communal violence between Hindus and Muslims and communalism is not an issue. Though BJP may come back to power here, but it will be a close contest and it is possible for Muslims to improve their last performance and may see 2-3 Muslim MLAs in the next Assembly. In a state which has only 2% Muslims it is a testimony to the fact that voters look for best candidate that can represent them and not necessarily one belonging to their religion or caste.
Muslim candidates for 2008 elections:
BSP
30-Bilaspur YUNUS ALI(SHAKEEL BHAI)
50-Raipur City North SADIQ ALI (ADVOCATE)
INC
65-Bhilai Nagar BADRUDDIN QURAISHI
71-Pandariya AKBAR BHAI
SP
47-Dharsiwa HAIDAR BHATI
50-Raipur City North ANWAR HUSSAIN (RAJU)
51-Raipur City South MOIN ASHRAF KHAN
62-Patan HAIDER BHATI