By TH Abdullah, TwoCircles.net
As the 2014 elections are fast approaching it’s apparently clear that the congress which is on the backfoot on development agenda wants to make it a secularism v/s communalism battle. The rise of BJP CM Narendra Modi on the national scene and Congress targeting his saffron credential has fuelled these speculations. In the recent Chintan Shivir the Home minister mention of saffron terrorism has nothing but increaded this notion.
In that back drop it’s interesting to see if any Muslim MLA can make it big in Karnataka. Traditionally the Karnataka Muslims have stood by Congress. It was because of this that Sonia Gandhi fought and won election from Bellary in Karnataka which is known to have large Muslim population.
There are Muslim leaders in congress who have won national acclaim and name, and have held the community together and towards Congress unlike other communities which in past may have left Congress for long time. Muslim community has been with congress barring a few places. But the leaders of Muslim society have never got the due share by the Congress high command. There are muslim MLA’s who have won election 5-6 times. Even when the congress was mauled the Muslim leaders of Congress held their ground and community voted Congress. In this scenario the Muslim masses of Karnataka are asking the question? Why can’t a Muslim be a CM?
Another thing that makes the case strong for the Muslim contenders for CM (if any) is the rise of Muslim based parties. These parties (especially SDPI) has put up a good show in Karnataka and they will surely play spoilsport towards congress in upcoming elections especially 2014 general elections. if the Congress appoints a CM from Muslim community there will be a ripple effect all over the India where the Congres is facing different Muslim parties and regional parties in pursuit of the largest block of voting, the Muslim votes.
A CM of Karnataka from Muslim community will make sure that the anti-minority acts Congress is been doing in India all along will be put on the side by the community.
As India goes to elections the congress need to a candidate acceptable to all and also a Cm who can be a good fundraiser. with Muslims forming a large majority of urban cities of Mysore,Bellary, Mangalore, Davangere and holding equally important Banglore Central area which is the hub of the Bangalore financial activities. A CM from Muslim community thus fulfils all the criteria of the Grand old party.
A Muslim CM will get the congress votes, funds, and ward off the competition, with unquestionable loyalty. But the million dollar question is? Will it do that?
Major Contenders are Shivajinagar MLA Roshan Baig and Gulbarga North MLA Qamar-ul-Islam. Roshan Baig happens to be one of the best choices if a Muslim CM has to be made. A leader with a huge fan following across the state Roshan Baig is one of most senior Muslim leaders of Karnataka Muslims, he has won from Shivajinagar for consecutive terms, and also form Jayanagar which are both in Muslim dominated central Bangalore. His service to the Hajj Pilgrims has brought him a good name and that he was one of very few Muslim MLAs who made it to assembly without any hiccup shows his appeal. He has worked as a Home Minister in the Krishna government and had been part of several government. Having taken strong stand against Saffronists he has earned a lot of support. His constituency Shivajinagar and the constituency around it are the financial hub of Karnataka.
Qamar-ul-Islam wields a big influence on the community, according to few people more than Jafar sharif or Roshan Baig. He has a huge following in northern Karnataka, he won the elections 5 times from different platforms and an MP election in which he defeated both Congress and BJP, this was post-Babri demolition when BJP was on the rise, he also has served as minister in Krishna government, and was primary reason of Krishna getting support in north Karnataka.
An able speaker and strategist he can be a jewel if used well. his hold on community is such that he won the election with bigger margin even when there was rebellion in congress by a youth congress leader and there was large scale division of votes.
if he is made Cm, then he may be able to get community votes, and as hE is from Hyderabad-Karnataka he can get region votes too, the HK region Muslims form a major part of Muslims of Karnataka.
He also has relations with Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM),which is why they did not enter Gulbarga. Making Qamar as CM will bring halt to MIM in the state. He may be able to even get MIM back to UPA.
CK Jafar Shariff also holds a lot of Support but over the years it has come down. This can be seen by the fact that he has himself lost consecutive elections and also his Grandson lost Hebbal constituency. His son in law Syed Yaseen lost it from Muslim majority seat of Raichur and two muslim dominated seats going to JDS shows that his popularity has reached a nadir.
Naseer ahmad who holds Karnataka State minority cell of Congress was also a good choice he was a close associate of V. Moily, but he lost out in Kolar.