By Prensa Latina
Tehran : Geopolitic and geostrategic reasons, where economic and religious elements converge, reduce to zero the possibility of a military aggression of the United States on Iran, stated on Sunday a respected expert of this nation.
In an exclusive interview with Prensa Latina at his home in Tehran, the president of the Center for Strategic Research and Security Doctrines of Iran, Hassan Abbasi, based his opinión on concepts about the new correlation of forces in the planet.
Abbasi, author of 30-odd books on military, security and islamic religion topics, mentioned the “cybernetic” theory, according to which, the world is like the human body with two key organs: brain and heart, besides other outlying elements.
The US, based on that reasoning, is at the head like the brain producing information and Iran “is the heart of the world”, producing energy while other nations make up the limbs with different degrees of leading or depending roles.
“That is why, under no circumstance there will be war between Iran and the United States, because it would be between brain and heart and that is fatal”, forecast lecturing profesor of the University of Tehran, while he suggested “there could be some bombings, but only that.”
As the most important economic reasons, Abbasi foresees that if belligerance for six or more months occurs, oil prices could soar to 400 dollars a barrel and up to 200 during the first 20 days. That would destroy world economy, he said.
He referred that Israel’s aggression on Hezbollah militia camps in Lebanon in 2006, was a frustrated experiment of how a large scale confrontation would be between Washington and Tehran, with the aggravating factor of a long conflict.
With a population of over 300 million, the US can no longer defend itself, if expenses generated by 150 thousand troops in Iraq are taken into account, because it would have to send at least two million troops to fight Iranians, considered the analyst.
He added his country has one third of all the European territory and 3,000 kilometers of coasts north and south, besides climatic conditions and the unfavorable mountainous topography for the invader.
From the military point of view, Iran has 70 per cent young population which allows it to resist more and two regular armies, one to defend the country that is the armed forces with 500 thousand troops, according to official statistics.
The other corps, said Abbasi, is called Guardians of the Islamic Revolution or Pasdaran, made up by five divisions, ground, air and sea troops, resides other nine million voluntary militia -the Basijis- and the elite corps Al Quds.
Al Quds controls the forces abroad and was included among the organizations banned last October by the US government. “Washington sees itself in conflict with this group and that is why it identifies it as terrorist”, explained Abbasi.
He recalled that since the 2005 elections won by president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was among the first to foresee that Iran was to be torced by the George W. Bush administration into the “chicken strategy”.
The latter, he explained, occurs when in the midst of the crisis two persons are about to clash anda t the end of the tense path one changes direction and is deemed a coward or weaker of the two.
The chicken strategy, reminded Abassi, occurred in Cuba 1962 during the October Missile Crisis and for two months the Soviet Union was about to clash with the US, but Ahmadinejad has already resisted Bush for 26 months.
Abbasi exposed two reasons why a war between Iran and the US will bring about a very bad balance for the West.
First, “the heart will never obey the brain” and Tehran will not take into account the hostility or the economic sanctions approved by Washington or the UN Security Council, so it will go ahead with its development projects of pacific nuclear energy.
Another very important argument, in the opinion of the strategist, is the Islamic belief of Iranis, whom he compared with the Japanese kamikadzes with the difference they are not suicidal, as “for us, he said, it is to pursue death that will take us to paradise, make us martyrs.”
From the Muslim point of view, a martyr never commits suicide because he believes in life after death and the Koran refers that sacrifice elevates to a maximum stage he who does it”, he explained.
“The Basijis go into combat prepared to die. Many have the hipothesis that the enemy comes to kill us, but in fact we go ready to be killed. At that point the enemy can’t do anything else,” he concluded.