By Xiao Lingjun, Xinhua
Beijing : Lebanon is once again at the crossroads of stability and turbulence years after the country moved out of the shadow of war in 1990.
The country is set to elect its head of state on Monday, after delaying the vote 13 times amid differences over the formation of a new government. The post has been vacant since former President Emile Lahoud left office on Nov. 24, 2007.
Thanks to the mediation of the Arab League (AL), both the parliamentary majority and the opposition have agreed on an Arab League initiative endorsed at the league’s ministerial meeting in Cairo on Jan. 6.
The three-point roadmap aims at electing army chief General Michel Suleiman as Lebanese president, forming a government of national unity and drafting a new electoral law.
But the rival sides remain at odds on how to carry out the compromise plan, with the opposition insisting on veto power in the cabinet and the majority rejecting the demand.
Arab League foreign ministers met for the second time in Cairo on Jan. 27 to reaffirm the need to implement the Arab League initiative to resolve the Lebanon crisis.
They also voiced support for AL Secretary General Amr Moussa in efforts to mediate a deal to end the months-long standoff.
Moussa went to Beirut on Thursday for a fresh try after failingto iron out the differences during the previous three trips to the Lebanese capital.
The AL chief vows to continue his mission whether or not a deal is struck.
The scheduled election, however, may not take place.
There have been expectations that Arab wisdom could bring an end to Lebanon’s worst crisis since 1990, when the pan-Arab body succeeded in ending the civil war with the Taif accord concluded in Saudi Arabia.
Lebanese analyst Assad Bshara, however, fears the recurrence of war in the event of the Arab initiative failure.
“History could repeat itself. In 1988, a vacuum in the presidency ended in the devastating destruction of Lebanon,” Bshara said.
In 1988, no consensus was reached to elect a president. As a result, internal wars lasted two years before being ended by Arab intervention.
The local Ad Dyar daily warned last month that “there are discussions among politicians in Lebanon to try to reach a new UN resolution on the presidential elections.”
The warning came days after French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner threatened to take the Lebanon issue to the United Nations.
“If it does not work for our friends the Arabs, we will come back to the UN,” Kouchner said during a visit to Riyadh on Jan. 14.
Analysts said a UN resolution could call for an immediate election of a Lebanese president, which might put the opposition in a difficult situation in the face of the international community.