Phase 3 Poll: Will BJP again sweep Muslim-dominated seats?

By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,

Patna: Out of 48 Assembly seats going to poll on October 28 in the Phase 3 of Bihar elections, 13 have 20 or above percentage of Muslim voters. In the 2005 Assembly poll the BJP-JDU combine had swept the area by winning 11 of the 13 Muslim dominated seats with BJP getting lion’s share (9 seats). Will JDU-BJP alliance write the success story again?

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In the outgoing Assembly, JDU-BJP has 30 MLAs (16+14) out of 48 seats going to poll in this Phase 3. The RJD-LJP alliance has 14 (11+3) MLAs while Congress, BSP and CPI-ML has one each. One is Independent.

The landslide victory for JDU-BJP alliance in this region in 2005 poll was for two reasons: anti-incumbency factor against Lalu-Rabri regime, secular votes (read Muslim votes) were divided, helping even BJP easily win Muslim concentration seats.

As there is not strong anti-incumbency factor – at least not as strong as it was in Lalu’s case – against JDU-BJP regime of chief minister Nitish Kumar, it will be hard to think about any surprising result.

More importantly, the second factor – division of Muslim votes – remains this time also, brightening the chance of JDU-BJP alliance.

Sikta Assembly seat has highest Muslim concentration (30.36%). There are a total of 18 candidates in the fray; 9 are Muslims. Similarly, Narkatiaganj has 29.83% Muslim votes. Out of 15 candidates there, 7 are Muslim. Siwan with 27.97% Muslim votes has 25 candidates; 9 are Muslims. This is enough to believe results will be not sad for JDU-BJP alliance. This is also because this alliance has fielded only two Muslim faces in this phase. One of them is in Sikta which has 30.36% Muslim votes.

Among the seats with more than 20% of Muslim population but with a few candidates from the community are: Raxaul (23.06%) — 1 Muslim among 10 candidates; Sugauli (24.94%) — 2 Muslims among 10 candidates; Gopalganj (23.7%) — 3 Muslims among 13 candidates.

However, Patna-based senior journalist Soroor Ahmed who has close eye on the Bihar elections says the JDU-BJP alliance may face some internal problem as cadres are not happy with the official candidates in many seats in West Champaran. As this election is witnessing strong return of Muslim-Yadav factor in favor of Laul Prasad, Gopalganj district could send him some good news because Lalu, his wife Rabri Devi and senior party leader Abdul Ghafoor come from this belt. In Saran district, indications are that Rajput, Yadav and Muslim will come together against JDU-BJP alliance, says Ahmed.

Mohd Adam Ali, senior journalist who writes for vernacular press from Gopalganj, has his own views on the whole scenario. “There is no anti-incumbency factor against Nitish government. People are talking about development and this is the issue on which Nitish is riding.” He further says: RJD-LJP alliance cannot pin much hope in this phase. However, he admits at some seats the JDU-BJP alliance may face touch fight from RJD-LJP alliance. “In Gopalganj seat BJP is in direct fight with RJD though Sadhu Yadav of Congress has made the fight triangular.”

RTI activist Afroz Alam Sahil, who comes from Betiah in East Champaran, wonders as to how people in the area will vote Nitish for development as the word D is yet to touch the land that gave birth Gandhi’s freedom movement. “Whether it is Sonia Gandhi, Lalu Yadav or Nitish, all start political campaign from Champaran but development has not reached the region. Notwithstanding the fact that Betiah had MLAs who became minister in the state cabinet, the area is very poor in all senses,” says Sahil. He, however, admits that the area has elected BJP legislators for long time.

The result will not be different this time. Sahil puts two reasons for victory of BJP candidates from this belt. “Literacy is low and people are easily attracted to communalism. At last leg of campaign, there something happens that atmosphere is communally polarized. The second reason is Muslim votes are divided as many Muslim candidates fight on one seat,” he says.

Read: Every vote counts