By Saiyed Danish, TwoCircles.net,
Lucknow: Rajnath Singh may not have a cakewalk victory in Lucknow. The strategist he is, has done everything to ensure he has his way, on the eve of the 7th phase of Lok Sabha polls where over 18 lakhs Lucknow voters will be determining the fate of the capital city of Uttar Pradesh. Lucknow is polling on April 30, along with 88 other constituencies across seven states and two Union Territories.
Beginning from the Samajwadi Party, the decision of replacing Ashok Bajpai with Abhishek Mishra is being increasingly interpreted as more devastating a decision than tactical.
Rajeev Yadav, an SP youth cadre in Lucknow expresses his apprehensions on the change of candidate which took place in March. “Bajpai has a good calling within Muslims apart from Brahmins, winning or no winning, he was our best bet. Abhishek Mishra can only get some Brahmin votes while Muslims do not connect with him. He is a not a mass leader here,” he told TCN.
Speculators in Lucknow say that it is his closeness to Akhilesh Yadav which turned the tide in his favour in the party. In the new equation which follows now, Samajwadi Party seems to have opened floodgates of pro-BJP votes. Even Akhilesh Yadavs moody road show may be of no significance.
Jamal Ahmad, ex-Congress General Secretary from eastern U.P. and currently Gorakhpur Congress president sees a “backdoor deal” between Rajnath Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav as the secret friendship of both is no more discreet.
“Samajwadi Party does not want Modi to win from Varanasi and wishes to help Rajnath Singh in his own personal ambitions. In case Modi loses from Varanasi, Rajnath must be in a stronger position to claim something which he has been secretly planning for,” he says seconding the latest Congress propaganda against BJP which labels Rajnath Singh as ‘the main Modi’.
However, Dr. Chandramohan, BJP’s U.P. spokesperson, has rejected these speculations as firing a rubber bullet in the dark. “Rajnath Singh’s candidature is not his sole decision. In the BJP, the party follows hierarchy and rules. BJP is set to make resurgence in the country and there is no question of a safe seat whether in Lucknow or Varanasi. In Uttar Pradesh, we are so confident that Rajnath Singh ji left his own Ghaziabad seat for former army general V.K. Singh and came to Lucknow to win form here. Winning is not the question of for us here.”
BSP candidate Nakul Dubey, one out of four popular Brahmin candidates, tirelessly campaigned throughout the length and breadth of Lucknow. But he runs the risk of losing Muslim votes and Brahmin votes are set to get divided between BJP, Congress, SP and his own party. Dalits 1,25,000 strong voters in Lucknow but is also set to get divided between Rita Bahuguna Joshi and him.
Muslim voters, a strong 4,00,000 electorate in Lucknow are strength to watch out for. In a new trend this election season, Muslims across Uttar Pradesh have adopted the formula of being tight-lipped and often misleading the pundits on whom will they vote for. BSP was expected to gain the elections but the apprehension in the community that BSP might well end up supporting BJP from outside after May 16.
As far as Javed Jafri, the only Muslim candidate contesting form Aam Aadmi Party is concerned, it is widely believed that a majority of Muslim voters in Lucknow may not vouch for him after Rajnath Singh met Kalbe Jawwad with a bouquet in hand. Some argue that though AAP’s disregard for identity politics is welcome but fielding Javed Jafri from the hotbed of caste-equations will render the party’s image as immature.
Nevertheless, he is riding high on hopes as he believes that he has got immense response form the middle class, the lower middle class sections in Lucknow. Backward class votes played a big role in Delhi in the favour of AAP. In Lucknow, there are 2,00,000 backward class votes which is also claimed by the BJP.
“I have received immense response from the people all over Lucknow. People want an honest change now and we are going to bring it. The working class and lower middle class are with us. You will see voters from all sections of the society voting for us and we are going to win,” he said, while speaking to TwoCircles.net.
Although Brahmin votes are set to get divided but Rajnath Singh is relying more on 1.25 Kayastha votes and 60,000 Thakur, over 2,00,000 Vaish and some backward caste votes. Thakur and Vaish votes cannot be expected to wane away from Rajnath but that alone may not be decisive for his victory if Muslims vote en bloc for one party coupled with a sizeable chunk of Brahmin votes. Like Muslims, the Pahari voters of Lucknow can also come out as kingmakers. These 1,10,000 Paharis are mostly expected to turn towards Rita Bahuguna Joshi as her father ex-Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna commands a great share of Pahari votes.
It is this equation of Pahari, Muslims and Brahmin votes that makes Rita Bahuguna a cause for Rajnath’s worry. The fate of these candidates may also depend based on how much dent AAP is able to make.