By Gilles Verniers,
IANS
One significant trend emerging from the current assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh is the attempt made by most parties to broaden their support base by wooing social groups that did not figure in their traditional support base earlier. The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which occupies the frontrunner position in every exit poll, best embodies this strategy of social coalition building, by mobilising the upper castes, not so long ago depicted as the arch-enemy of its core Dalit support base.
Despite its tremendous growth since the late 80’s, the BSP has always had difficulties in gathering votes outside its traditional Dalit base or having its candidates elected outside reserved constituencies. The strategy consisting of wooing the upper castes and other groups at local level reveals the necessity of the BSP to expand its appeal to other fractions of the electorate in order to capture power.
What is new, however, is the attempt to form a social coalition of extremes, in order to oust the incumbent party out of power by directly mobilising the upper castes. The creation of numerous caste organisations is precisely aimed at achieving this end.
Notably, the presence of Brahmins within the party is not a new phenomenon. Mayawati is known to have drawn her closest advisors from the upper castes, has been allotting tickets to upper-caste candidates in recent elections and counts a substantial number of Brahmin MPs in the federal assemblies. Nonetheless, this transformation reflects more an adaptation of the party to the socio-political scene in Uttar Pradesh than a profound change of identity. As such, the party remains dedicated almost exclusively to the upliftment of Dalit communities.
It hardly matters whether this strategy will or will not generate major shifts in the pattern of electoral support; in fact, it does not even intend to do that. Given the fragmentation of the electorate and the party system in place in Uttar Pradesh and thanks to the cohesiveness and strength of its traditional Dalit base, the BSP only needs a fraction of the support of other groups to be in a position to form a government.
Wooing the upper castes is also a means of reinforcing the recent and relative bi-polarisation of the political scene in UP, by eroding the support of the Bhratiya Janata Party (BJP) and, to a lesser extent, of the Congress.
Herein lies the complexity of the situation, as – in case of victory for the BSP – it will be very difficult to assess whether this strategy had been successful in attracting positive support from the upper caste ranks or simply been able to encash on the more traditional anti-incumbency factor.
The BSP is currently the most – if only – credible alternative to the Samajwadi Party. If in the last assembly elections, it won 98 seats against 143 for the Samajwadi Party, the vote share difference between the two parties was of only 2.3 percent.
Furthermore, the factionalism and the bickering within the BJP leaves it, at best, in a position of a potential spare wheel in a future coalition government. This factor might indeed push fractions of the upper castes to strategic voting against the party in power.
Interestingly, this appeal to upper castes does not affect the Dalit base of the BSP. Conscious of their numerical strength and their limitations, they are used to the opportunistic combines set up by the leadership of the party in order to capture power. In the past, they have seen Mayawati allied three times with the BJP and once with the Samajwadi Party. The symbolic value of seeing a Dalit occupying the gaddi (seat) in Lucknow supersedes the means necessary to achieve that goal.
Conceived as an instrument for victory, this strategy – if successful – will, however, most probably push the party to evolve into a genuinely broader political formation, as that would be the necessary condition to nurture the loyalty of their new supporters.
(Gilles Verniers is Ph.D scholar from the Political Studies Institute of Paris and is currently based at the Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi. He can be reached at [email protected])