By Alok Bansal, IANS
The inevitable has happened and Pakistan’s military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, has imposed an emergency to remain in power. In his address to the nation, which was also meant to give his message to the West, he claimed that he was forced to act by circumstances as the writ of the state was being challenged by the extremists across the length and breadth of Pakistan.
The terrorists were attacking the symbols of government not only in the tribal regions of Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) but also in the settled areas in the North West Frontier Province like the Swat Valley; in the Northern Areas and even in main cities like Islamabad, Karachi and Sargodha.
The terrorists have of late been targeting personnel of the security forces and in many instances the security personnel who belong to the same ethnic groups as the terrorists and may be share some of their fundamentalist beliefs have refused to fight them and in some cases have even laid down their arms. As a result, we have seen hundreds of soldiers being taken as prisoners in FATA as well as in the Swat Valley.
In a country where the army is the only effective institution and the sole integrating factor, fissures in its ranks may spell doom.
In his address, Musharraf, besides blaming the terrorists, has also blamed the judiciary, which according to him had been undermining the executive and thereby preventing it from dealing effectively with the extremists and terrorists.
He has also blamed the media for misusing the freedom that “he” had given them. He has appealed to the international community, especially the Western countries, not to expect their levels of democracy, civil rights and human rights in Pakistan.
He asserted that inaction at this stage would amount to suicide for Pakistan. He has, however, reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening all the three pillars of democracy in Pakistan but how he hopes to achieve it is not clear because not only has he sacked the Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry but has also appointed Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar as the new Chief Justice superseding two other senior judges who had ruled against him.
He has grossly undermined the independence of judiciary and the suspension of constitution and the promulgation of Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) clearly indicate that the emergency is just a garb to proclaim some sort of a martial law. As it is, the emergency proclamation lacks constitutional sanction as a Supreme Court bench of eight judges had ruled against it. These judges also refused to be sworn under the PCO.
The manner in which the media has been muzzled, by snapping the telephone lines and Internet connections and preventing cable operators from airing private news channels, gives glimpses of martial law. A number of opposition leaders have been detained.
Aitzaz Ahsan, the president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, who had been arguing the case against Musharraf’s re-election in the Supreme Court, has been arrested. Justice Chaudhry and a number of other judges of the Supreme Court were physically removed from the Supreme Court by the troops, who have been deployed all over Islamabad and Karachi.
Armed pickets have been established in Peshawar. The reality is that the so called emergency has only been imposed to perpetuate Musharraf’s rule, as it appeared that the Supreme Court wanted to rule against Musharraf and that too, as late as possible because the term of the current parliament expires on Nov 15 and the election of a new president after that would have been impossible.
It also appeared that the judiciary felt that Musharraf’s position within the army was weakening as he had already nominated his successor, who was also close to former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. The manner in which troops had been fighting militants in FATA and Swat clearly indicates their disillusionment with Musharraf’s vision.
Political leaders cutting across political divide have criticised Musharraf’s second coup. Bhutto has opposed the emergency and has appealed to the masses to oppose this dictatorial act of Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, has said that this threatens the very survival of Pakistan and has asked his countrymen to rise against Musharraf.
Imran Khan, the president of Tehreek-e-Insaaf, has gone to the extent of accusing Musharraf of treason and has advocated the death sentence for him. The international community has also criticised the acts of Musharraf.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has called it a very regrettable step and has asserted that Musharraf must step down as army chief before taking oath as the president again. As Musharraf has been a key ally of the US in its war against terror, it has refused to stop the military aid. But the west is slowly realising that absence of democracy and pluralism is mainly responsible for the rising crescendo of extremism in Pakistan and has accordingly been urging Musharraf to introduce democracy.
It had succeeded in working out a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto, who is still the most popular leader in Pakistan and because of her Western educated cosmopolitan background is acceptable to them. This had resulted in her return to Karachi last month. However, certain sections of the Pakistani ruling establishment, especially those occupying political offices, were against this rapprochement and had been suggesting emergency rule as a means to muzzle the judicial challenge.
Bhutto had accused them for the suicide attack on her convoy in Karachi and it appears that Musharraf has finally accepted their point of view.
Musharraf realises that his main constituency is the army and he is secure as long he has its backing but having publicly proclaimed Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the vice chief of army staff, as his successor, it may not be easy for him to take its support for granted, as the army, in order to salvage its image as an institution, would like to distance itself from Musharraf, who is extremely unpopular today.
There are already reports of murmurs of dissent within its ranks. A stronger statement from the West, especially the US, would hasten Musharraf’s break from the army. The US needs to understand that extremism has only grown in strength during Musharraf’s regime.
Bhutto, who has returned to Karachi, would like to channelise the opposition to the regime through her party and under her leadership. The opposition to Musharraf, besides the Karachi bomb blast, may also help her wash the stigma of striking a deal with Musharraf and if she fails, the fundamentalists will gain in strength.
There may still be some collusion between Bhutto and the regime as is evident from the fact that she was allowed to return despite the proclamation of the emergency as both the regime and the West do not want the opposition to the regime to be channelised through the Islamic parties, which had been the case hitherto.
Has Musharraf placed his last card on the table? Probably not! He still has the option of upping the ante against India and rallying the army and the country behind him but how successful would he be under the changed circumstances in any of these ventures only time will tell. However, one thing is certain: any failure at this stage would drive another nail into the coffin of the Pakistani state. For the West that could be a nightmare as it would have to work out a contingency plan for the Pakistani nuclear stockpile.
(Alok Bansal is a research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi who specialises in Pakistan. He can be contacted at [email protected])