By DPA
Myawadi (Myanmar) : Hope isn’t an ally Win Hlaing can easily give up on. It sustained him when he was a student leader in the 1988 protests in Myanmar that left 3,000 dead. It sustained him when he won a seat in the 1990 elections, which the military junta refused to recognise, and it sustained him through 10 subsequent years in a squalid Yangon jail.
It supported him too when, just six months ago, Win left his wife and 17-year-old daughter to flee Myanmar and join the struggle with the exiled National League for Democracy in Thailand, knowing that while the military remain in control he can never return.
But at the end of a week, which has seen peaceful demonstrations in his home city 400 km away crushed, monks and civilians beaten and shot, it was clear that hope can sometimes be a fickle friend.
The visit of United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari to Myanmar may do more harm than good, 42-year-old Win said sadly at a friend’s house just four km from the Myanmar border. “We worry in our hearts that military junta will abuse this visit.
“They will pretend to listen to the international community and then, when the envoy goes home, there will be a brutal response against the people.”
Win’s anxiety is no doubt sharpened by the knowledge that he has left his family behind in Yangon. “Of course I am afraid for my wife and daughter, but my brothers and my family are protecting them,” he tells me.
His optimism remains intact, however. With the army clearly in control of Yangon, he prefers to focus on unconfirmed reports of army unrest trickling out of the capital. “People are willing to die for this cause and the soldiers realise this,” he said. “We don’t need guns. We only need to make sacrifices and we will win.
“People have been standing in front of the soldiers and baring their chests, daring them to shoot. Some soldiers are turning against each other. Ten miles from downtown Rangoon (Yangon), one unit fought against another when soldiers refused to open fire on citizens. It is a very hopeful development.”
Across the land border in Myawadi, a town of 66,000 on the Myanmar side of the border where many people make their money smuggling goods to and from Thailand, a 48-year-old fisherman sums up the town’s almost blasé attitude to the uprising. “Of course we support the monks and the students, but they can never win,” he said.
“Twenty years ago, there were protests all across Burma and they failed. This time, there are protests only in Rangoon and Mandalay. The army is stronger than ever and the people have no weapons, only words. How can they hope to succeed?”
Resentment towards the regime is almost universal, however. “We need help but the government does nothing to help us,” a woman shopkeeper said. “Last week, a kilogram of rice cost 30 baht ($0.94). Today the price is 62 baht. People are hungry and can’t afford to eat but the rich people do nothing. They don’t care.”
The surprise as far as most people in the capital is concerned is that it took the government as long as it did to begin the crackdown. One theory is that it may have been the generals’ bizarre move to the remote jungle capital in Naypyidaw that made them slow to realise the immensity of the challenge.
“Remember that everything looked fine from the villa windows of Naypyidaw when the protests were at their peak,” said one diplomat. “Commanders in the capital may well have downplayed the threat, reluctant to tear the generals away from the golf courses and risk their anger by telling them the extent of the protests.”
That delay gave the protestors a window of opportunity, and one that in retrospect may have been forced wide open had there been any splits in the ranks of the military.
With Yangon in the iron grip of the army and that window of opportunity firmly closed, the only hope for the exiled National League for Democracy representatives is outside intervention. “We want China to act,” said Win.
His appeal is broader. “We want Buddhist countries to unite against what is happening. We want Buddhists from across the region to unite against what is being done to the monks,” he said. “This isn’t only a Burma affair. It’s a Buddhist affair.”