By IANS
Ahmedabad : The Congress party, out of power for 12 years in Gujarat, needs to do well in some key regions, especially Saurasthra as well as the tribal belt, if it is to win the assembly polls in December.
An analysis of the 2002 results – in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 127 seats to the Congress’ 51 – shows that the latter needs to add at least 42 seats to win a simple majority in the 182-member legislature.
Assuming it is in a position to retain the existing seats, it could then take a hard look at the vast Saurashtra region, the bastion of the Patel and Koli communities whose most prominent leaders are at war with Chief Minister Narendra Modi. The Congress has 12 seats from here compared to 36 of the BJP.
Representatives of the Patel and Koli communities are upset at the treatment Modi has meted out to some BJP leaders from among them, including former chief minister Keshubhai Patel who has emerged as a rallying point for BJP rebels.
The Congress can hope for a re-run of the anti-Modi campaign in the region that saw the BJP lose established strongholds like Amreli in the 2004 Lok Sabha ballot. The BJP won just 14 out of 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2004.
No wonder the Congress has been assiduously building up its cadres and restructuring its organisation in this coastal belt over the last three years.
Another region the Congress would like to win back from the BJP is the predominantly tribal belt along the Gujarat-Madhya Pradesh border, especially Panchmahals and Dahod districts that account for 13 seats.
While tribals were long seen as Congress supporters, the 2002 elections changed the equations as Modi’s pro-Hindutva wave in the aftermath of the communal violence helped the BJP sweep the region.
A rally Sonia Gandhi addressed near Dahod earlier this year evoked a good response, raising Congress hopes. However Modi too has taken several initiatives in recent weeks to retain his party’s hold there.
The Congress is hopeful of a better showing in Surat and other parts of south Gujarat from where it has only four legislators to the BJP’s 12.
If the dissident factor and the trend seen in Surat in 2004 are any indication, the BJP will have a tough time retaining the tally.
The second largest city of Surat is home to former union textile minister Kashiram Rana, a leading dissident in the BJP.
It also has a large population of immigrant workers, employed mainly in the diamond processing industry, and Patel has been a popular leader among them.
Modi’s charisma is strongest with the urban middle class, and the BJP is the strongest in Ahmedabad and surrounding areas that account for 21 seats. Only two of these are with the Congress.
It remains to be seen if the Congress can make a comeback there.
In adjoining Gandhingar, the two parties share honours with two seats each.
A battle is also in store in Vadodara district, which along with Vadodara city boasts of 13 seats. Here, the BJP made a clean sweep in the last two elections.
But the BJP has seen a lot of dissident activity in Vadodara too. Nalin Bhatt, a key party leader from the city, last month joined the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).