By IANS
New Delhi : The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would easily retain power if a snap parliamentary poll is held now, though the Left allies’ strident stand on the India-US nuclear deal poses some political uncertainty, a survey has indicated.
The UPA would have secured 267 seats in the Lok Sabha, just short of a clear majority, leaving the main opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) way behind at 133 seats, if the mid-term elections were held in the first week of September, when the Centre for the Studies of Developing Societies (CSDS) conducted a survey on behalf of TV news channel CNN-IBN and the daily Indian Express.
The Left tally would have come down to 45 seats from the present number of 60 in a house of 545 members, largely due to the reverses it could have suffered in Kerala, the survey said.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s numbers are going up substantially, according to the survey. It would be in the vicinity of 35 seats as it can also win some seats outside Uttar Pradesh where it rules.
But the recently launched ‘third front’ of the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), consisting of regional parties claiming equidistance from both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), may not gain much, the survey predicts. The UNPA would remain restricted to just 49 seats, and may not be able to play any significant role in the next government either.
While the Left parties’ threat to withdraw support to the UPA government has left political observers speculating over chances of mid-term polls, majority of the country’s voters have not been aware of such prospects and hardly anyone wants elections.
However, if elections were forced now, the Left and the NDA would lose out to the UPA, which has just started showing the first signs of anti-incumbency.
The survey says that for the first time since 1991 the Congress could cross the 200-seat mark, and the first time since 1989 the BJP may fail to touch the three-digit figure.
According to the survey, the NDA losses will be mainly on account of the anti-incumbency factor working against it in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where the party rules.
The only BJP mascot holding his ground and keeping the BJP flag aloft is Gujarat Chief Minister Narenda Modi, who, the survey predicts, would help the party romp home to victory for a third successive term in the state.
However, the BJP’s regional allies like the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa, the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in Bihar are still popular with people and may, therefore, add to the NDA tally.
While the India-US nuclear deal has led to the serious difference between the UPA and its Left supporters, the man on the street is either blissfully ignorant of the India-US nuclear agreement or “benignly indifferent” to it, concluded the survey.
The survey showed 64 percent of the respondents had not heard of the deal, 26 percent supported it and 10 percent had only vaguely heard it.
What matters for the average voter are price rise, unemployment and economic inequality – the very factors that pulled down the NDA government.
The survey used a sample of 18,750 people in 18 larger states. The sample consisted of 73 percent rural people, 45 percent women, 11 percent Muslims and 18 percent Dalits in 940 polling stations in 217 Lok Sabha constituencies.