By IANS
New York : With relations between the proscribed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Islamic militant groups growing, the Indian government cannot afford to ignore the northeastern militant outfit much longer, warns a leading US think tank.
“Though ULFA’s militant activity is confined to India’s restive northeast, the group’s financial enterprise and strong links with Islamist militant groups have made it a threat that New Delhi will not be able to ignore much longer,” Stratfor stated in its latest analytical report titled ‘India: ULFA abandons peace talks’.
The report comes in the wake of the ULFA’s Sep 17 announcement that it was abandoning peace talks and preparing for full-scale battle.
Stating that in the past year, ULFA, which has been fighting for an independent homeland, has been primarily attacking Hindi-speaking migrants and causing damage to oil and natural gas pipelines in Assam, Strafor said: “ULFA regularly dances around the idea of peace talks and knows full well that New Delhi is not serious about rewarding its militant campaign with political concessions.
“At the same time, ULFA prefers keeping up the militant front to maintain its financial network and its beneficial relationship with Pakistan’s intelligence agency that helps keep India’s hands tied. Thus, talk of negotiations does not really hold much weight.”
According to the report, as the Indian government was facing “loads of political pressure” over its civilian nuclear deal with the US and the entry of corporate retail firms into the country, ULFA in all likelihood saw this as an opportune time to pressure New Delhi into coming to the negotiating table.
“The Indian government is reluctant to continue talks, especially as the chief mediator for ULFA, (eminent litterateur and Jnanpith award winner) Mamoni Raisom Goswami, is in the hospital after suffering a cerebral stroke,” it stated.
However, Stratfor said New Delhi would have to pay more attention to the ULFA as it has begun to outsource operations like suicide attacks from Islamic groups.
“Stratfor has been closely monitoring the growing nexus between India’s northeastern insurgent outfits and militant Islamist groups that regularly traverse India’s extremely porous border with Bangladesh.
“This is an area where ideology, religion and ethnicity hold little or no regard, as each militant group works with another to promote its cause. ULFA, in particular, has shown a growing propensity to work with Islamist militant groups in the area, and has even begun to outsource operations, including suicide attacks,” the report stated.
It said India received a wake-up call to this threat from the northeast Aug 25, when the southern city of Hyderabad was rocked by twin bombings.
“The two prime suspects in that bombing belonged to Bangladesh-based Islamist militant group Harkat-ul-Jihad e-Islami, which is known to have a working relationship with ULFA and other northeastern insurgent groups, and with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency,” it stated.
“Though India has largely turned a blind eye to militant groups operating in its far-flung Northeast, the growing Islamization of the region, the deteriorating security situation in Bangladesh and these insurgents’ recent reach into the heart of India’s financial hub provide more than enough reason for New Delhi to start paying closer attention to its northeastern border,” the report concluded.
Founded in 1996, Stratfor – short for Strategic Forecasting – provides global intelligence, analyses and forecasts to its clients who take major strategic decisions.