By Xinhua,
Jerusalem : U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is due to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories at the upcoming weekend for the seventh time this year.
As both Israel and the United States are preparing for leadership changes, Rice seems evermore determined to elbow Israel and the Palestinians towards establishing a peace agreement. Yet, many analysts believed that the political instability is likely to slow down any decisive efforts.
“I think it is important to note that Secretary Rice is not giving up. She is determined to see how much progress she can help the parties make despite the new obstacles that have arisen since her last visit,” Dr. David Pollock, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Xinhua in a telephone interview.
Pollock said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s possible leave of office in September, ahead of the end of U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration in January, piled up pressure on Rice to help strike some sort of official consensus between the Jewish state and the Palestinians.
“Over the next five months, they are going to keep trying to reach some kind of Palestinian-Israeli agreement,” Pollock said. “At the minimum, if they can’t produce an agreement, they are going to want to be able to say that they are handing over a working peace process to the new U.S. administration.”
Meanwhile, some analysts cautioned that the looming political changes, plus the existing internal instability, would on the other hand overshadow the seemingly desperate efforts.
Khaled Abu Toameh, a Palestinian affairs analyst, said the Palestinian perspective on Rice’s visit is quite grim as they see it as a farewell visit.
“It is her last visit before the end of Bush’s term that is how the Palestinians see it. No one is taking it seriously,” Toameh told Xinhua, adding that she at best might be able to reach some kind of framework agreement.
He further explained that the possible political uncertainty concerning Olmert’s departure would be bad for the Palestinians as well.
“First there are the Kadima primaries, then the coalition negotiations, and then a new government, and eventually they might start talking about general elections. So for the next couple of months, no one expects any real progress,” Toameh said.
He also stressed that divisions among the Palestinians are also not encouraging, fearing that any agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) would be rejected by radical Hamas, which has been ruling the Gaza Strip since June 2007.
Personal might limited
Besides, some analysts see that Rice’s ability to establish any conclusive agreement is limited.
“She is interested in pushing talks forward using personal involvement, but I don’t think she has sufficient power to make a difference,” Dahlia Golan, Professor of Government at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, told Xinhua. “The only real power is with President George W. Bush.”
Noting Rice’s indefatigable efforts over the frequent visits to the region to squeeze some sort of statement even before negotiations are finalized, Golan said she expected Rice would not be able to get such a statement.
“I have a feeling she may only be able to make some comment about the state of negotiations and press both parties to move forward,” Golan said, adding that Rice does not stand much of a chance without direct backing from Bush.
Still, analysts believed that Olmert, Rice and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will do everything in their power to see to it that the groundwork is set for a viable peace agreement.
Pollock said Olmert may hold on to the office of prime minister for several months following his departure as head of ruling Kadima party in September, therefore prolonging a sense of stability at least in Israel.
“It is not clear whether the person replacing him will be able to put a new government together,” Pollock said, noting that Olmert may continue as caretaker prime minister at least into November and potentially longer depending on whether there will be a new election.
Given that the trio might be able to buy more time to continue negotiations, Pollock said there is still a chance they could reach some sort of agreement.
“I think that the Palestinians and the Israelis have actually on some issues clearly come closer to an agreement than before,” Pollock said, noting that the two sides had agreed on the concept of land swaps between Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Israeli land in other places.
However, time and extended political terms alone were not enough to safeguard the continuation of negotiations, analysts said.
“The big question for both sides is what to do about Hamas in Gaza. I think that people are floating new ideas about that, but to me they seem not terribly realistic,” Pollock said.