By Ronald Baygents, KUNA
Washington : A five-member panel of experienced political analysts almost unanimously agreed that Hillary Clinton is in the best position to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. president this year, but were divided on the question of which Republican will prevail.
In a wide-ranging discussion at the Columbus Club, the panelists were asked who currently has the “best hand” in the race for the presidency among the Democrats. Four said Clinton, while one said it was a “coin flip” between Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
Congress Daily executive editor David Morris said Clinton has the “clearest road to the nomination” of any candidate in either political party, because the traditional Democratic Party coalition supports her, and she has momentum coming out of her victory on Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary.
National Journal political correspondent Jim Barnes agreed that Clinton is the “establishment candidate” well known by Democratic Party insiders, and that this is “a big advantage in a close race.” Scott Reed, a Republican strategist and former national campaign manager for Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole in 1996, said he would bet on Clinton because “she has the national infrastructure to go the distance.” She also has the “best master (political) strategist” in the country in her husband, former President Bill Clinton.
Tad Devine, senior adviser to Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore in 2000 and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004, agreed that the former first lady is in the best position to win her party’s nomination because 53 percent of Democratic voters are female; the system rewards someone with broad-based political support, which she has; and she has been good at “stealing the other guy’s message” — a reference to how Clinton altered her campaign message from an emphasis on “experience” to an emphasis on “change, which is the mantra of Obama.
Chuck Todd, MSNBC political director and former editor-in-chief of The Hotline, said he believed the contest between Clinton and Obama was “a pure coin flip.” Obama has the advantage of the calendar, Todd said, while Clinton has the advantage of the assumption of success — as demonstrated by the predictions of the other panel members.
The path to the Democratic nomination is easier for Obama if he wins both Nevada on Jan. 19 and South Carolina on Jan. 26, Todd said. If he does, he likely will be a slight favorite when 22 states — including delegate-rich California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey — vote on Feb. 5, “Super Tuesday,” Todd said.
“Obama’s chief challenges over the next month are to prove competency on the experience front, to figure out how to woo more women from Clinton, and to get aggressive against her without going negative,” Todd said.
Just because Clinton won New Hampshire does not mean she has erased some of her core problems, including the lack of a consistent message, the difficulty getting out of her husband’s shadow, and a staff that may have trust issues after they stabbed each other in the back, Todd said.
On the Republican side, there appear to be four plausible nominees — Arizona Senator John McCain, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani — and a wild card, Fred Thompson, who could help determine who wins South Carolina, where the Republicans vote on Jan. 19, Todd said.
“The guy in the driver’s seat, at least temporarily, is John McCain, because the next two states (Michigan on Tuesday and South Carolina for the Republicans on Jan. 19) are places he can easily get 40 percent,” Todd said. In a multi-candidate race, that is more than enough to win both states.
— It will be difficult for McCain to sustain a loss in either state, Todd said, “though I would argue if he wins Michigan, South Carolina is not a must win as long as the candidate who does win it is Mike Huckabee.” If McCain sweeps Michigan and South Carolina, he will be the Republican nominee, Todd predicted. “The Republican establishment is ready to rally behind him, they just want to make sure he is ready to be a front-runner again, ” Todd said. “The guy has never been a good front-runner.” Huckabee’s path is similar to McCain’s, Todd said. “A sweep of the next two and he will probably be the (Republican) nominee — though he will not have much established support — and he will probably be forced to go through a longer process to earn it, a la (Democrat) Bill Clinton in 1992.” Reed said the well-funded multi-millionaire Romney still has a chance to win the Republican nomination, but it is “do or die” time for him in Michigan, where Romney grew up and where his father was a Republican governor in the 1960s.
The attack ads Romney ran against McCain on the issues of illegal immigration and taxes, while ineffective in New Hampshire because of the tight calendar, “needed more time,” Reed said, and Romney will have more time in the coming weeks.
All the panelists agreed that former North Carolina senator John Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2004 who placed second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire this month, will not win the Democratic nomination.
However, Devine said, because of the 15 percent threshold rule, which means among Democrats you can continue gathering delegates as long as you get at least 15 percent of the votes, Edwards can affect who wins such key “Super Tuesday” primaries as Georgia and California.
Morris predicted Edwards would not even win in the state of his birth, South Carolina, where Edwards won his only primary victory when he ran for president in 2004. While Morris said he believes those voters who bail out on Edwards will switch to Clinton, Todd disagreed, saying those voters would go more for Obama. Devine agreed with Todd, because Obama and Edwards campaign most strongly on the issue of “change.” Barnes said Obama enjoys a “race advantage” in South Carolina, because he is African-American, and there are 45 percent African-Americans in South Carolina.
Reed said that right now, Obama appears the most electable candidate, “but he needs to quit acting like he is already the Commander-in-Chief, and put some meat on the bones” when it comes to his positions on the key issues.
Turning back to the Republicans, Reed said the Jan. 29 Florida primary will be critical for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani, who is “not doing well” in that state. Giuliani has spent the bulk of his time campaigning in Florida after virtually skipping Iowa and New Hampshire, with an eye toward winning in Florida, then doing well on “Super Tuesday.” When Barnes said the Republican establishment has not moved yet on which of its candidates to support, instead preferring to wait for the results from a couple of more states, Reed said there is no Republican establishment because it is splintered. “The Republican nominee must re-brand his message in a way that is not Bush, ” Reed said, referring to Republican President George W. Bush, who remains highly unpopular in U.S. polls.
Morris said there is no path to the Republican nomination for Huckabee, “except as a spoiler.” Although many Southern states vote on Feb. 5, and the South is home to a large percentage of Christian evangelical voters, who swept Huckabee to victory in Iowa, Morris said Southern states do not have as many delegates as the more populous Northern states and California, which vote on “Super Tuesday.” Devine said McCain is the candidate Democrats fear most as the Republican nominee. The 71-year-old U.S. Senate veteran and former prisoner of war in Vietnam, who is hawkish on the Iraq war, is a “maverick” on many other issues, and thus not seen by the voters as a Bush backer, Devine noted.