By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,
Patna: There are 50 Assembly seats with 20 or above percentage of Muslim votes in Bihar. In the just concluded elections, BJP alone won 26 seats out of this 50. The local and national media highlighted this fact and said Muslims have voted for BJP. But when one goes a little deeper one finds division of secular votes, particularly Muslim votes, helped BJP gain massively.
True, BJP got massive victory in this region – it fielded 29 candidates and 26 of them won but its partner JDU did not perform as impressively as only 11 of its 21 candidates could win. The BJP-JDU combine together won 37 out of these 50 seats while RJD-LJP alliance got 6 and Congress 3. The rest 4 were won by Independents.
But the historic win for BJP on such Muslim seats is because of typical and traditional division of secular, particularly Muslim votes. On almost all 26 seats won by BJP, there were several Muslim candidates – from major parties as well as independents. Collectively they got more votes than the BJP candidates.
Take some examples of the division of votes that helped BJP. Take the case of Narkatiaganj with 29.83% Muslim votes. Here winning BJP candidate polled 45022 votes while 7 Muslim candidates collectively got 39327 votes and Congress candidate got 24794 votes. If Muslims voted for BJP candidate then who voted for Muslim candidates and also for the Congress candidate?
How division of votes helped BJP on Muslim seats
Narkatiaganj (29.83% Muslim votes)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 45022
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (7): 39327
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (Cong: 24794)
Chanpatia (20.02%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 44835
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (3): 30039
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (INC: 9131, CPI: 7441)
Parihar (28.01%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 32987
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (6): 27332
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (RJD: 28769)
Madhubani (24.38%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 44817
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (4): 52408
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (Cong: 10291)
Katihar (27.65%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 58718
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (2): 18980
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (RJD: 38111, Cong: 2570)
Sikti (32.7%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 42076
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (4): 38897
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (LJP: 32202)
Keoti (32.55%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 45791
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (8): 57506
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (BSP: 1985)
Baisi (69.06%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 39939
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (6): 81410
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (BSP: 1255)
Amour (74.3%)
Vote polled by BJP candidate: 57774
Vote polled by Muslim candidates: (4): 59056
Vote polled by other candidate of major party: (BSP:2227)
The most publicized win of Saba Zafar, lone Muslim candidate of BJP, was also because of division of votes. In the Amour constituency with 74.3% Muslim votes, the BJP candidate Zafar got 57774 votes while four other Muslim candidates jointly got 59056 votes. That included 38946 votes polled by Congress candidate Abdul Jalil Mastan. Again the same question: If Muslims voted for Zafar of BJP then who voted for Mastan of Congress.
However, the division of votes, it seemed, took place more on the seats where Muslims constitute 20-30% than those seats where they are in bigger number.
In the 20-30% segment, BJP got 100% success as its all 16 candidates that it fielded won. But this was not so in the 40-plus segment where they got about 50% success as four of its seven candidates could win.
And this reflects in the combine performance of NDA as well. In the 20-30% segment of 28 Muslim seats, the alliance got 89% success as out of 28, it won 25 seats but it decreased in the 30-40% segment. In this segment of 10 seats the alliance won 7 seats, that is 70% but the performance further went down in the higher Muslim populated seats. In the 40-plus segment of 12 Muslim seats, the alliance could win only 5 seats, that is just 41%.
What is also noteworthy is it is in this segment that Congress and other parties have done well. Of 12 seats, three has been won by Congress, two by LJP and one by RJD.
