By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
The parliamentary election in Bihar is heading towards an interesting finish. Though different opinion polls show that the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance may end up winning as high as 25––or even more––seats out of total 40 in the state, yet the constituency-wise analysis does not sketch such a rosy picture for the lotus-brigade.
Now that the names of candidates have been finalized by the political parties for all the 40 Lok Sabha seats there is likelihood of much more closer finish. As the election in parliamentary democracy is somewhat different from the presidential form of government, some surprise in the results can not be totally ruled out.
If elections are held in the presidential form, as it happens in the United States, than BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, may win as Barack Obama did when polls were held on November 6, 2012.
But interestingly, when the electorate in the United States voted for 435-member House of Representatives––which is like our Lok Sabha––on the same day in 2012 it was not Obama’s Democratic Party but Mitt Romney’s Republican which won 234 seats leaving 201 for its main rival.
Curiously the Democrats lost in the House by 33 seats notwithstanding the fact that they got 48.3 per cent votes against 46.9 per cent by Republicans.
Since most of the surveys have been done well before all the candidates had actually filed their nomination papers their results had the presidential overtone.
As elections in Bihar still have much to do with the caste and community equations the presence of candidates sometimes do matter.
Besides, there are serious incumbency factors against some sitting MPs, even if they belong to the ruling Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is projected to do much better. These two parties won 32 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats when they fought unitedly last time.
Selection of candidates and choice of alliance by different parties also matter much. For example, many upper castemen are not showing too much interest in the election in the constituencies where Lok Janshakti Party or Rashtriya Lok Samata Party candidates are in the fray though their choice for the prime minister is certainly Narendra Modi. That is one reason why even the Lok Janshakti Party supremo Ram Vilas Paswan, his son, Chirag Paswan, and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief, Upendra Kushwaha, are not very sure of their victory. In contrast the BJP candidates are in more comfortable position.
Similarly, many Muslims––and to some extent Yadavs too––are not so much inclined towards the Congress candidates than towards its ally, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, nominees.
There are some other fascinating features of elections. For example, Sadhu Yadav has jumped into the fray against BJP’s Janardhan Singh Sigriwal, Prabhunath Singh of RJD and Manoranjan Singh Dhumal of the Janata Dal (United) from Maharajganj seat. Though he still swears by Narendra Modi, whom he met in Ahmedabad last year it is to be seen whether Sadhu cuts into the votes of BJP or RJD––as he is the brother in law of Lalu Prasad Yadav.
A similar situation emerged more than a decade back when a Yadav candidate of a rival party campaigned in his Assembly constituency with the slogan “Lalu Yadav Zindabad”, when the fact was that he was actually fighting the candidate of the RJD.
Since the pre-poll surveys were done before the battlelines were actually drawn, sometimes they tend to give a different picture. As the electoral battle hots-up the scene starts changing.