By M Reyaz, TwoCircles.net,
Kabul: On Sunday the Independent Election Commission announced the partial result of the Presidential Election. With nearly 10 % votes counted so far, Dr Abdullah Abdullah is leading with 41.89% of votes, while Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is close behind with 37.60%.
“For partial results we only counted 10 percent –500,000 votes—we are still counting the remaining votes for the final reveal,” IEC Chief Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani said, assuring to segregate the “dirty votes” from “clean votes” and have a fair final result on time.
Eight candidates are trying their luck to succeed President Hamid Karzai, although the main contest was among three front-runners. Zalmai Rasoul, behind whom Karzai, had put his weight seems to be distant third with 9.8% of the votes counted so far.
Other candidates in the fray are trailing far behind: Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf with 5.1% votes is in the fourth position, followed by Qutbuddin Hilal (2.7%), Gul Agha Sherzai (2.2%), Daoud Sultanzoy (0.5%) and Hedayat Amin Arsalan (0.3%).
The Taliban, who unsuccessfully tried to derail the election process has meanwhile rejected the election and its outcome saying that they are not legitimate. Meanwhile, the other six candidates held a joint press conference at the residence of Sayyaf rejecting the partial result, alleging, “large scale fraud,” adding, “the IEC officials will be held accountable for any negative consequences.”
The contest is still wide open as 90% of the vote counts are still left and so far the votes counted include only 26 of the 34 provinces. Result of Nuristan, Daikondi, Baghlan, Badakhshan, Ghor, Ghazni, Paktika, Wardak, etc. are not known yet and they may turn the table.
Although Dr Ghani appeared favourite for many, with Dr Abdullah giving a tough fight; if early signs are indicators of the outcome, it seems that the division in the Pashtun votes may have hampered the chances for Ghani, while Abdullah has been successful in consolidating his vote base. Thus results out so far, indicate that Abdullah is clearly leading in his strongholds: Panjsher (91.75%), Parwan (76.35%), Bamyan (70.17%), Herat (66.52%), etc. Although earlier – unverified result – had suggested Ghani leading in Balkh, it appears now that Abdullah has got over 57% of votes, counted there too.
Largely owing to his strong campaign, Ghani appeared to be popular primarily among Pashtuns, but also among educated class, cutting across ethnic lines, particularly in Kabul. Abdullah has been able to hold on to his vote base even in Kabul and has got 50.31% of votes counted, while Ghani could manage only 34.66% of votes counted in the Capital.
In Kunarha (56.8%), Paktia (73.39%), Khosht (80.28%), etc. Ghani is leading, but in provinces like Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, etc. he lost considerable votes to Rasoul as well as to Sherzai and others. In Kandahar, for example, Rasoul is leading with 45.44% of votes. Kandahar has been strong base of Karzai and Qayoom Karzai, brother of Hamid Karzai, had withdrawn his candidature in favour of Rasoul. Sherzai too has got 19.44% of total votes counted so far here. In Helmand, Ghani is the leading candidate with 37.96% of votes counted, but Rasoul (23.77%) and Sherzai (16.61%) again appears to have considerably cut into his vote base.
While Dr Abdullah has welcomed the outcome, calling it highlight of the final result, Dr Ghani still appeared hopeful and said that once “fraudulent votes” are distinguished from the valid votes, and by the time final result is out things will change in his favour.
Afghanistan had created history on April 5 by turning out in large number to vote for the first transition of power since Hamid Karzai took over after NATO intervention in 2001, braving the incessant rain and threats issued by Taliban. 7 million of the 12 million eligible voters (about 60%) had turned out at 6,212 polling stations defying Taliban’s attempt to sabotage the election process for a peaceful transition.
The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has meanwhile received over 3,274 complaints , 1017 of which was against election workers, 338 against presidential candidates, 537 against provincial council candidates (election for provincial council was held simultaneously) and the remaining 699 complaints were miscellaneous issues.
Final result of the Presidential election would be declared on April 24. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the first round a second round must be held pitting the top two candidates against each other that may elongate the whole process into months.
While Ghani had indicated that he was open to some sort of ‘consensus’ government in case he is ahead to avoid any run-off, Abdullah appeared opposed to the idea. In case a run-off is held between two front-runners, it would be interesting to see, who would be able to get the support of the rest of the candidates – whose votes might appear as the deciding factor.
Karzai is seen as opposed to Abdullah, and hence if he supports Ghani, he may have the edge, but as the early result points out you cannot underestimate of Dr Abdullah.
Related:
Resilient Afghans come out in large number despite Taliban threats
Nostalgia for Karzai era grips many Afghans